LTH spending is near historic lows, marking an accumulation phase.
Similar past patterns preceded 18-25% Bitcoin gains.
Bullish signals from CDD Momentum and MVRV Z-score.
Bitcoin’s market behavior is once again aligning with a familiar pattern. Long-Term Holders (LTHs) — those who typically hold BTC for extended periods — are currently spending at minimum levels, a trend that often signals the start of a strong accumulation phase. Historically, such phases have led to significant gains in Bitcoin’s price.
Over the last four similar occurrences, three resulted in price increases of 18-25% over the following six to eight weeks. This behavior suggests that seasoned investors are choosing to hold rather than sell, often seen as a bullish sign in market cycles.
Bullish Indicators Add Strength to Price Outlook
The optimism isn’t based solely on LTH activity. Additional on-chain metrics support the bullish narrative. Notably, the Cumulative Days Destroyed (CDD) Momentum is in positive territory, indicating that older coins are staying dormant, reinforcing long-term holding patterns.
Meanwhile, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score, another trusted indicator, also shows strength. A healthy MVRV Z-score typically signals that Bitcoin is not overvalued and may have room to grow, especially during accumulation phases.
If we look at the entire Long-Term Holder cohort, their spending is currently close to minimum levels. Essentially, the current minimum in LTH spending coincides with the classic accumulation phase. In three out of four previous similar cases, such LTH behavior led to Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/UkMeoK2AjC
— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 17, 2025
What This Could Mean for Bitcoin’s Near Future
If historical trends continue, the current phase could set the stage for a Bitcoin rally. As long-term holders resist selling and key indicators align positively, the market may be preparing for another bullish leg. While no prediction is guaranteed, the data points to favorable conditions for upward movement in the weeks ahead.
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