Last week (June 11 - June 16), affected by geopolitical tensions, the market experienced severe fluctuations, with BTC showing resilience by rebounding quickly after a drop. From June 12 to 13, due to the escalation of the Middle East situation and uncertainty regarding Trump's tariff policy, market risk aversion increased, with BTC dipping to a low of $102,664.31, marking a maximum weekly decline of 7%. However, BTC quickly rebounded, returning to oscillate in the $104,000 - $105,000 range. On the 16th, driven by market favorable news and continuous inflow into BTC spot ETFs, BTC peaked at $107,715 and is currently stabilizing around $106,615. ETH's overall trend remained in sync with BTC, with a maximum weekly volatility of 15.35%, and the current price is about $2,576 (Binance, June 17, 15:20).
Last week, with the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, all three major US stock indices fell over 1%. This Monday, the situation temporarily eased, and US stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising 1.52% and the S&P 500 returning above 6,000 points.
Market Interpretation
US May CPI fell, increasing expectations for interest rate cuts.
US May CPI was below market expectations, and core inflation indicators have slowed for four consecutive months. CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, and core CPI rose only 0.1% month-on-month, both below expectations, indicating weakening inflation stickiness. Following the data release, S&P 500 futures turned positive, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.1%, with the market raising the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 85%. Although the annualized core CPI is still above the 2% target, the short-term decline in food prices and the impact of tariffs have yet to be seen, leaving room for the Fed's easing policy. Future decisions may rely more on core PCE data. Trump publicly called for interest rate cuts, further strengthening market easing expectations. Overall, macroeconomic signals are moderately optimistic, and risk appetite has rebounded in the short term.
The situation in the Middle East escalates, global risk aversion rises, putting short-term pressure on the crypto market.
In mid-June, the intelligence war between Israel and Iran escalated, leading to large-scale airstrikes and a sharp increase in geopolitical risks. Gold broke through $3,400, and crude oil rose to around $90, putting pressure on global stock markets. The cryptocurrency market fell in tandem, with BTC dropping to around $103,000 on June 13, down 3.5% in 24 hours; ETH fell over 8%, SOL dropped nearly 9.5%, and the CD20 index fell 6.1%. The main reasons were the flow of safe-haven funds into gold and the US dollar, declining local demand in Iran, and the sell-off of high-volatility assets. However, by this Monday, the market had largely digested the impact of geopolitical conflicts, with BTC and ETH showing strong resilience and rebounding quickly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.94% and 1.5%, respectively, while gold retreated by 1.5%. Market attention gradually shifted to the FOMC meeting and institutional developments in the cryptocurrency market.
Advancement of the (GENIUS Act) marks a new phase in stablecoin regulation.
Last week, the US Senate voted 68-30 to support the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) for full chamber debate, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework for payment-based stablecoins pegged to the US dollar and clarifies their legal status, receiving broad bipartisan support. Supporters believe that the framework will enhance transparency and promote the application of stablecoins in payments, while opponents worry that high thresholds may limit innovation and squeeze small issuers. If passed smoothly, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT are expected to benefit directly, potentially accelerating market consolidation, and legislative progress will also influence the global direction of digital asset regulation.
The US Senate advances the (GENIUS Act), marking a milestone in stablecoin regulation.
Last week, the US Senate voted 68-30 to support the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) for full chamber debate, marking substantial progress in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework for payment-based stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, clarifying their legal status, and has gained rare bipartisan consensus. Supporters believe that the GENIUS framework will enhance market transparency and promote the application of stablecoins in payments. Opponents worry that high thresholds may restrict innovation and squeeze small issuers. If passed, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT will benefit directly, potentially accelerating market consolidation. Legislative progress will also impact the global regulation path for digital assets.
Market Hotspots
A preliminary trade agreement was reached between China and the US, focusing on rare earths and tariffs as key points of negotiation.
Last week, a preliminary trade agreement was reached between China and the US, mainly based on China’s commitment to pre-supply rare earth materials to alleviate supply chain pressures on US industries, in exchange for the US setting export tariffs to China at 55% (China’s tariff to the US at 10%). Although tariffs were lowered from previous expectations, they are still above historical averages, putting pressure on both economies. Overall, the temporary easing has not changed the storyline of high-risk games and uncertainty.
JPMorgan is expanding into crypto payments, with the 'JPMD' trademark sparking expectations for stablecoin innovation.
Recently, JPMorgan applied for the 'JPMD' trademark in the US, covering various crypto services such as digital asset trading, payments, and clearing, possibly paving the way for its own stablecoin and blockchain financial applications. Earlier reports indicated that JPMorgan and several large banks are studying the joint launch of a US dollar stablecoin to accelerate cross-border and everyday payment efficiency. Currently, JPM Coin has processed over $15 trillion in interbank blockchain payments.
Trump Media approved for $2.3 billion in BTC reserves, earning $57.35 million in personal crypto income annually.
Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) this week received SEC approval for $2.3 billion in financing, planning to allocate most of the funds to BTC, aiming to become the third-largest corporate BTC holder globally. Concurrently, it was disclosed that Trump earned $57.35 million through his family crypto platform in 2024, surpassing his traditional business. The company positions BTC as a 'core financial asset', strengthening its asset structure. Despite the company's active promotion of its crypto strategy, DJT's stock price has fallen 42% this year, with revenue far below losses, and the market questions its profitability model and valuation. Industry analysis points out that the trend of public companies allocating BTC is accelerating, and related volatility and risks warrant ongoing attention.
Circle surged nearly 390% in its first ten days of listing, with the leading stablecoin driving industry mainstream adoption.
Global leading stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) went public on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, becoming the first stablecoin company to successfully IPO. On its first trading day, Circle's stock price surged 168%, closing with a market capitalization exceeding $21 billion. As of now, Circle's stock price has risen nearly 390% over the ten days, with the latest market value approaching $36.7 billion. As the 'first stock of stablecoins', Circle has completed compliance listing ahead of others, marking a significant event in the legalization and capitalization of the industry.
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