Today's Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

Yesterday, Binance updated its ALPHA point rules, directly cutting off the point rewards for token trading and LP liquidity. This change was also anticipated; the ALPHA sector may not be as competitive going forward, and it could be a good time to pick up bargains after the tide goes out.

Long-term holders (LTH) on the chain have achieved a profit-loss ratio that is actually approaching the peak area of previous market cycles. Combining the trends of the past year, it can be observed that whenever we approach a high point, the market often does not peak directly but instead maintains a high level of consolidation for 1-2 months. Through continuous declines and rebounds, chips are gradually distributed from veteran holders to short-term speculators. This distribution often occurs more than once, with instances of one peak, two peaks, or even three peaks observed in the previous two cycles. Currently, it seems that we have completed the two-peak phase. If the market continues to oscillate downward over the next 5-7 months, there is no need to panic; instead, it presents a stage-wise opportunity for 'bottom fishing'.

Bitcoin's current price is in a very 'ambiguous' zone—there is potential for a continued upward breakout, but it is also possible to retest lower levels. From a profit-loss cost-effectiveness perspective, the current position is actually 'more favorable for shorts than longs'. Simply put, the downside potential is far greater than the upside potential. Therefore, unless there is a clear breakout signal, BTC may remain in a consolidation phase until July, and only after stabilizing above the $100,000 mark will the bulls' advantage truly reveal itself.

In terms of ETH, the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains suppressed around 0.025 in the short term, making it difficult to break through. Meanwhile, in the altcoin sector, the value of the 'stablecoin sector' is increasingly recognized by the market. For example, MKR has already shown strength in the early stages and still has the opportunity to reach new highs.

Additionally, there is a concept token for RWA (Real World Assets) that was mentioned early on—SYRUP (formerly MPL), which has accumulated a 150% increase since it was listed on Binance in May. Although the trend isn't explosive, it has been steadily rising. Some friends in the group started positioning themselves early, and their profits have already doubled. SYRUP's valuation is not exaggerated, and its trend resembles a 'blue-chip stock' in the blockchain, with long-term logic still in place.