BTC: As of June 17, 2025, the current price of BTC is $106,500; yesterday's closing pattern was a 'spinning top', with trading volume moderately increasing compared to the previous day, indicating that the bulls currently have an advantage.
On-chain data shows that yesterday there was a net inflow of 3,872 Bitcoins (worth $409 million) into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, reflecting strong institutional confidence. However, the rising turnover rate indicates that short-term players are exiting at high prices, while long-term holders remain calm, and the amount of coins held on platforms continues to decline, reflecting the market's preference for medium to long-term positioning.
On the macro level, the upcoming U.S. retail sales data (expected month-on-month -0.7%) and the Federal Reserve's dot plot on Thursday will have a key impact on future trends. If the data is weak, it may exacerbate expectations of economic slowdown, dragging down BTC's upward momentum.
Overall, while Bitcoin continues its rebound trend, whether it can further advance still depends on the upcoming macroeconomic data, especially the Federal Reserve's dot plot this Thursday, which will play a crucial guiding role in market trends. The price range of $93,000 to $98,000 has gathered a large amount of chips, but the price increase has not triggered significant sell-offs, indicating that this area still has solid support. However, from the two key dimensions of profit-taking and new capital inflows, there are signs of slowing upward momentum. The scale of profit-taking is shrinking, and new demand is also declining, which may suggest a weakening upward trend.
Long-term entry points: $88,800 - $89,100; $82,500 - $82,800;
Positioning suggestion: Long-term BTC should account for 50% of the total position;
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