BTC Market Momentum Analysis Report

📉 Momentum Deterioration Observation

Data shows that BTC's momentum is gradually deteriorating. Today, we continue to update the third 'Effective Signal' - observing the momentum from the scale of profit-taking.

June 2: We first pointed out signs of momentum 'deterioration', as the scale of profit-taking was lower than the previous instance, which put significant pressure on the market (as marked 2 in Figure 1).

June 5: During the feud between Trump and Musk, the third wave of profit-taking exceeded the previous round (as marked 3 in Figure 1). Despite the decline in BTC, it found support around $100,000, indicating that the market could absorb the excess supply.

June 11: The fourth wave of profit-taking occurred (as marked 4 in Figure 1), but its height was significantly lower than previous fluctuations, confirming the 'deterioration' of BTC's momentum, albeit slowly.

🔍 New Demand Analysis

From the perspective of new market demand (as shown in Figure 2), new demand (blue waveform) is closely related to short-term price trends (black line). When the market starts, new demand surges, driving prices up; during market pullbacks, new demand contributes to the formation of temporary bottoms.

Demand Peak: From early April to April 27, demand values significantly increased, pushing BTC prices from $76,000 to $96,000. Subsequently, demand weakened, but stimulated by macro favorable news, demand rose again, driving BTC prices to a historical high of $110,000.

June 5: At the time of massive profit-taking, new demand saw a large influx, which is one of the reasons BTC rebounded to $110,000.

However, as BTC prices rebounded, the demand value continued to decrease and is currently below the early May levels, further validating our observation of BTC's momentum 'deterioration'.