#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:

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🏦 What to Expect

Decision timing & format

The FOMC convened on Tuesday–Wednesday, June 17–18, with the policy statement scheduled for 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) on June 18—followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at ~14:30 ET .

Policy outlook

Policymakers are strongly expected to keep the federal funds rate in the current 4.25%–4.50% range. Virtually no one is pricing in a rate cut at this meeting (<0.1% probability) . A Reuters poll found nearly all economists expect no change in June, with some predicting first cuts in Q3/September .

Key drivers

Inflation: Tariffs haven’t noticeably driven up consumer inflation yet; recent CPI/PPI prints have been on the softer side .

Labor market: Remains solid—unemployment stable around 4.2%, and payrolls firm .

Geopolitical & tariff risk: Rising tensions in the Middle East and unpredictable trade dynamics are keeping policymakers cautious .

**Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)**

The Committee will release updated dot plots and forecasts, likely including one or two rate cuts anticipated for later in 2025, though exact timing remains uncertain .

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🔍 Market Takeaways

Rates: Expect the status quo—hold at 4.25–4.50%.

Guidance: Markets will closely watch Powell’s commentary for tone on timeline of future cuts—possibly in September or even later.

Risks: Any strong hints that tariffs or global instability could re-accelerate inflation might push rate cuts further into the future.

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🗓️ Looking Ahead

Next key dates:

Minutes from June meeting: scheduled July 9 .

July 29–30 meeting: next full session, follow-up press conference.

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In summary: June’s FOMC meeting is almost certain to hold rates steady, but all eyes are on the updated dot plot and Powell’s remarks, which will shape expectations for potential cuts later this year.