Announcement time of the FOMC decision
On June 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the new interest rate adjustment at 14:00 ET (23:30 IST). This event draws special attention from the cryptocurrency investment community, as the FED's decisions strongly impact Bitcoin prices and various altcoins.
The FOMC meeting agenda is expected to include the following points:
14:00 ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision
14:00 ET: Official FOMC Statement Release
14:00 ET: Release of the Dot Plot from members
14:30 ET (0:00 IST): Press Conference of FED Chairman Jerome Powell
Will the FED lower interest rates in June?
Under pressure from high inflation and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, most investors predict that the FED will keep the current interest rate unchanged. The market places a nearly 97.5% bet on the possibility of maintaining the interest rate at 4.25% – 4.50%.
While there are no plans for an immediate cut, investors will pay attention to Chairman Powell's tone to determine the trend of rate cuts by the end of the year.
FED Interest Rate Chart (up to June 2025)
It is expected that the FED will maintain the interest rate at 4.25% – 4.50% in the June 18 meeting. The actual rate has been maintained at 4.33% since the beginning of 2025.
The futures market shows about a 60% chance that the FED will cut interest rates in September, but the upcoming meeting may reflect more patience from monetary policy. Predictions for 2025 will also adjust, reflecting the uncertainty of the economy.
Month FED Interest Rate (%) January 2025 4.33 February 2025 4.33 March 2025 4.33 April 2025 4.33 May 2025 4.33 June 2025* 4.50 (upper point of the target range)
Bitcoin Price Outlook: The Next Trend
While the interest rate decision is unlikely to surprise the market, it is the speech of Chairman Jerome Powell that is the turning point. If he mentions the possibility of rate cuts or stimulus policies like QE, it could create a positive shock, boosting financial market growth.
Two factors driving Bitcoin's price:
Reducing escalating geopolitical tensions: causing a wave of reduced anxiety and boosting the derivatives market through price drops, thereby triggering buying strategies to hedge risks.
Powell's 'hawkish' policy: if he takes a softer tone, this could become a strong bullish signal for Bitcoin, altcoins, and high-yielding cryptocurrency assets.
Currently, the funding rate of Bitcoin is negative, indicating that the bears are over-leveraged. If the sentiment shifts positively after Powell's speech, the market may witness a squeeze of short positions, leading to a strong breakout in cryptocurrency prices.
Frequently Asked Questions about the FOMC Meeting
What is the FOMC?
The FOMC meeting is a gathering of FED policymakers to determine monetary policy, including the appropriate interest rate for the U.S. economy.
Will the FED cut interest rates on June 18?
The market predicts it is almost certain that the FED will keep interest rates unchanged — the probability at CME FedWatch is about 99.9%.
What is the current interest rate of the FED?
Since January, the FED has maintained the target interest rate in the range of 4.25% – 4.50%, with the actual rate around 4.33%. There are no signs of adjustment in this June meeting.
Anticipating new developments and predicting cryptocurrency price trends based on important information from the FED meeting.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/crypto-forecast-based-on-powell-speech/
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