1.1.2 Real Fragility
Only when the tide goes out do we know who is swimming naked.
Friends, I am ZenMusk, from the Bluebird Club. In the previous discussion, we talked about how the crypto community appears to be thriving, with prices skyrocketing, a large community, and impressive marketing; it does look quite intimidating. But it's like building a house while only focusing on how beautiful the outer walls look, neglecting the quality of materials and the stability of the foundation.
So, in the next point, we need to delve deeper into what kind of **'real fragility' is hidden beneath this seemingly 'prosperous' appearance.
This is not just talk. What it reveals is that the excitement built on rising prices and promotional efforts is actually very unstable at its core. Once the external environment changes, such as the market not being so prosperous or the project's development not meeting expectations, the previous 'heat' could decline just as quickly. Community activity will rapidly decline, and the members who previously rushed in may leave in droves, even leading to what people often refer to as a 'death spiral'—the less popular it is, the less attention it receives, making it harder for the project to grow, leading to even less popularity, creating a vicious cycle.
This fragility is inevitable. It stems from the community's establishment being too reliant on external 'momentum' rather than internal 'quality'. Just like we mentioned in another discussion, if the connections between people and their confidence in the project are primarily based on 'how much money can be made', then this relationship is very utilitarian and extremely unstable. Once the market fluctuates and profit expectations change, all previous 'consensus' might just dissipate.
This fragility is actually around us. Look at some projects that have recently gained popularity quickly; although their prices and community numbers have risen in a short time, if you observe closely, are many discussions in the community revolving around price? Are interactions between members filled with complaints about price fluctuations or urging for 'pump'? Once the price corrects, does the community quickly show 'FUD' (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) sentiments, or even mutual accusations? These behaviors are manifestations of an unstable community foundation and 'real-world fragility'.
Although I haven't seen any particularly large projects suddenly collapse into a 'death spiral' these past few days, the market itself, especially those more volatile coins, their rapid price fluctuations indicate that this fragility has always existed. Today it looks 'to the moon', but tomorrow it might just 'drop badly'. This rollercoaster-like experience is the most direct manifestation of community fragility and unstable confidence.
Therefore, the 'frenzied appearance' is like building a beautiful castle on sand; it looks glamorous from the outside, but a bigger wave (market change) can quickly cause it to collapse. Recognizing this 'real fragility' is very important for us. It reminds us not to be deceived by the immediate excitement but to see that beneath this fragility, we need to seek and build something more solid to enable the community to truly thrive and flourish.
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The hotter the surface, the more fragile it may be.
Only when the tide goes out do we know where the foundation lies.
What the crypto community needs is not short-lived noise but long-lasting vitality.
#CommunityCrisis #Fragility #MarketVolatility #DistillingTheTruth