#FOMCMeeting Here’s a detailed rundown on the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting:

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🏛️ What It's About

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year; the June 17–18 meeting is one of two annual sessions that include updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) .

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🔍 Market & Analyst Expectations

Interest Rates: The Fed is expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, continuing its "wait‑and‑see" strategy amid cautious evaluation of inflation, job market data, and tariff impacts .

Rate Cuts Timeline: Market consensus—as reflected in economist surveys and bond futures—is leaning toward a first rate cut in Q3, possibly September, though some push it to Q4 or later .

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🧩 Background Context

Inflation & Tariffs: May’s consumer and producer price data softened, but policy remains cautious due to tariff-related inflation uncertainties .

Labor Market: Labor data stays healthy, with unemployment at ~4.2% and job gains above expectations—reducing immediate pressure to cut rates .

Geopolitics & Oil: Tensions (e.g., Middle East, Iran-Israel) are lifting oil prices, further complicating the inflation outlook .

Political Pressure: Former President Trump continues to push for aggressive rate cuts (“numbskull” comment), though Fed officials emphasize independence .

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📊 What to Watch This Week

1. Statement & SEP release (June 18): Look for updated rate forecasts (“dot plot”) and economic projections—especially number of cuts signaled.

2. Press Conference with Chair Powell: Key for hints on timing of first cut or potential caution ahead.

3. Fed Commentary on Tariffs & Inflation: Will be watching official tone on trade issues and price risks.

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✅ Key Takeaway

Expect no rate change at this meeting—with the Fed maintaining a cautious stance. This session is likely to be about communication changes: how the Fed positions itself for possible late‑2025 cuts, yet remains vigilant on inflation and global headwinds.

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