Reviewing the early morning trends!
As soon as the US stock market closed, Bitcoin dropped: this completely aligns with my judgment from yesterday. This wave of Bitcoin's rebound has actually already played out in advance. It currently has no strength to rise on its own, relying entirely on support from the US stock market. Once the US stock market takes a break, Bitcoin immediately weakens.
A pullback itself is normal, but feels a bit 'hollow': this wave of 4-hour level decline is a normal adjustment after a fast previous rise. The price did indeed hit the support level around 106,200 that I mentioned yesterday and then bounced back.
One detail to note: this drop is not due to rising too high, and indicators like 'overbought' and 'divergence' forcing a pullback. The RSI hasn't even touched the 70 overbought line, so this pullback seems a bit 'lacking in conviction', more like a pure retest of support.
Trump dropped a 'little bomb', but the market reacted lukewarm: at around 6 or 7 AM, Trump suddenly called on social media for everyone to quickly withdraw from Tehran. This news indeed increased the extent of the decline a bit. But the key is, the market is not panicking at all! It seems everyone is numb to this kind of geopolitical risk 'rhetoric'; as long as it doesn't escalate into actual conflict or an explosive situation, the market acts as if it hasn't seen anything.
Current state: Conflicted oscillation: Bitcoin is now stuck in an awkward position:
It can't do it alone: Without the US stock market leading, it can't rise.
Not easily scared: Trump's explosive warning doesn't frighten it.
Overall feeling: Both bulls and bears are hesitant to act recklessly, cautiously waiting for signals. Next, we will see tonight's US retail data and tomorrow night's Fed dot plot. These two are the real events that can shake the market.
Summary: The market currently feels like a tightened string — on one hand guarding against the potentially sudden deterioration of the geopolitical situation, while on the other hand eagerly waiting for tonight and tomorrow's macro data to provide direction.
Next, I will continue to lay out precise trades; rather than blindly searching and failing to capture the best entry and exit points leading to losses, it’s better to follow my lead, which I endorse directly.
Focus for today: ZKJ TRX ALT HYPE
