Written by: Joshua Deuk
Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain
Editor's note:
As Bitcoin breaks through $110,000 again, the market greed index continues to rise, especially as the enthusiasm for altcoin season is reignited. However, the subsequent market fluctuations shatter the illusion once again.
Unlike the panic in the altcoin market, Bitcoin is once again hovering close to $110,000, and Ethereum is also starting to show breakout trends. So, what will be the next super alpha opportunity? Is MeMe still the super crypto track?
Mozaik Capital's trading head Joshua Deuk on the current market: the following is the main text.
This weekend, with more time to reflect, I want to share some thoughts about the market.
I believe the overall directional trend of the cryptocurrency market will not become apparent until after September. Given the macroeconomic headwinds, summer liquidity constraints, and quarterly position adjustments, the true market dynamics will begin when market participants return after the August holidays. From recent market activities, most altcoin rallies have been driven by short squeezes. Traders are conditioned to chase momentum due to the previous rebound—but this time there are no real long-term holders. Most have already been bruised by the market. As expected, the vast majority of tokens that surged sharply subsequently experienced equally sharp declines.
Ethereum unexpectedly rebounded, with the most battered sectors, such as AI and MeMe coins, leading this rebound. On the other hand, tokens with practical uses, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms have shown resilience—not only performing better during downturns but also recovering faster. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. SPX, while a MeMe coin, has a completely different structure. From this, we can extract the following insights:
01 Bitcoin demand is real and persistent.
Traditional capital is gradually entering through ETFs and other regulated channels.
The nature of capital supporting BTC is completely different from previous cycles. That’s why a massive BTC liquidation is less likely to happen unless triggered by macro events.
02 Differentiation within altcoins will intensify.
Ultimately, capital will flow back into altcoins—but it won't be across the board. Only tokens with clear use cases and practical applications are likely to attract these capital inflows. That’s why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana. Regulatory clarity, increasing decentralized finance usage, deflationary structures, and staking demand create a powerful flywheel effect. Moreover, since ETH has long failed to meet expectations, it still has marginal buyers waiting off-exchange.
03 Venture capital-backed tokens have structural risks.
Token unlocks will continue to pressure price trends. In the absence of liquidity, the persistent selling pressure from validators and early investors limits the upside potential. That’s why I believe that overvalued tokens listed on centralized exchanges are not a good choice for the future. Tokens in the Cosmos ecosystem, in particular, face ongoing selling pressure due to their validator reward structure.
04 MeMe has structural advantages.
In this case, MeMe has structural advantages, with no venture capital unlocks, a fair launch, and 100% based on attention. This is a purely speculative mechanism—just like in the first cycle, it worked.
But I believe this phase is coming to an end.
The token generation event of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump coins marked the peak of attention for MeMe coins. After that, interest in MeMe coins began to wane. Even during April's rebound, SOL's performance was not as good as ETH—if everyone already holds SOL, who will be the marginal buyer when the momentum of MeMe coins fades?
Some MeMe coins may still perform well, especially those that have gained popularity outside of crypto Twitter, like those driven by charismatic figures like MURAD on TikTok or Instagram. These may still bring asymmetric wealth effects. But the era of 'cute dog and cat coins' as alpha has ended. Only those MeMe coins with strong narratives and strong market recognition—things that people can collectively believe in—have real speculative value.
Ironically, the fatigue and skepticism towards venture capital-backed tokens have opened the door for fairly launched Web2/3 projects, which will become the next wave of wealth generation opportunities.
Keeta is a great example. But to seize these opportunities, you need to be active on-chain. When there is information asymmetry, big opportunities always emerge. Once everyone knows something, it no longer has returns.
That's why I spend more time closely monitoring the on-chain market. Keeta's success has ignited the desire to find the 'next Keeta,' and capital has begun to chase similar fairly launched altcoin narratives. Just like that guy from Bonk who made over ten figures by trading MeMe coins—attention guides capital.
05 Next market trends.
So, if meme coins are no longer where the opportunity lies... what comes next?
My view: The combination of AI and cryptocurrency.
If you have followed my timeline, you would know that most of my operations in this cycle—after the early SOL and venture capital-backed tokens—have focused on MeMe coins and AI.
Just like during DeFi summer, most early AI projects failed after the hype. But real utility-based projects are quietly building during this bear market.
We have already seen some of these projects emerge on-chain.
As profits from MeMe coins dwindle, attention will naturally shift to new narratives.
AI, with its clear utility, is well-suited to become the next destination.
Many AI x Crypto projects are fairly launched, echoing Keeta's narrative.
That's why I took the time during the quiet weeks to research and position myself in this field in advance. There is no need to rush to build a full position now—but I believe that if the market sees a strong rally again, this field will contain the greatest asymmetric opportunities.
