#FOMCMeeting

🗓️ When & Format

0-1The meeting runs June 17–18, 2025, and will include the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) and a press conference—statement at 14:00 ET and Powell’s Q&A at ~14:30 ET  .

🔍 What to Expect

Policy Decision

343-0No change to the federal funds rate; it’s widely expected to remain 4.25%–4.50%  .

528-0Futures market shows near 100% odds of hold  .

Key Drivers

Inflation

614-0Some cooling in recent CPI/PPI reports, though concerns remain about tariff-driven inflation  .

796-0Geopolitical tensions (Israel–Iran) pushing oil prices higher, further complicating inflation dynamics  .

Labor Market

950-0Unemployment steady near 4.2%, job creation robust, suggesting a solid labor market  .

1112-1Elevated tariff levels and political pressure by President Trump to cut rates are being weighed—but the Fed remains in a “wait-and-see” stance  .

📈 The Dot Plot & Outlook

1387-1Previously, two cuts were forecast; now markets expect only one cut by year-end, likely in September  .

1672-0Reuters poll: all but two economists see no change in June, with over half expecting a cut in Q3  .

💬 Market Sentiment & Reactions

1795-0Markets are cautious—uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical risks dampens expectations for a stock market rally  .

2012-0Watch oil market swings; major shifts may prompt reconsideration of policy timing  .

🔜 What to Watch

ItemWhy It MattersFOMC Statement (Wednesday 14:00 ET)Any change in tone or new language on inflation and tariffsPowell’s Press Conference (~14:30 ET)Market tone and forward guidance cluesDot PlotInsight on how many cuts the Fed anticipates this yearPost‑June inflation & retail sales dataSignals to watch for whether a September cut remains credible