According to Deep潮 TechFlow news, on June 17, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that while Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have caused turmoil in global markets, Bitcoin has shown significant resilience. Unlike the 8.4% plunge caused by last year's attacks in April, Bitcoin has only dropped about 4% in this round of events and quickly rebounded to around $107,000. The market generally views $100,000 as a psychological support level, and CoinGlass data indicates that if it falls below this level, it could trigger liquidation risks for over $1.74 billion in long positions.
On-chain data shows that since June 13, over $1.1 billion in long positions have been liquidated in the crypto market, with Bitcoin accounting for more than 40%. The Fear & Greed Index remains in the 'Greed' zone, indicating that the market has not fully entered a risk-off mode. The options market also reflects strong bullish confidence. To date, the total open interest in Bitcoin options has reached $42.5 billion, setting a new historical high. The open interest for call options expiring in June and July, specifically the 110k and 120k strikes, is particularly concentrated, with contract volumes exceeding 500,000 at single price levels, as traders generally bet on Bitcoin breaking new highs. Barchart data shows that the current total premium for call options is approximately $70 million, significantly higher than the $15 million for put options, with a Put/Call premium ratio of 0.21, indicating extremely bullish market sentiment.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is also worth paying attention to. The rise in oil prices triggered by the situation in the Middle East may lead to a resurgence in inflation expectations, while the U.S. May CPI and PPI data shows that core inflation growth remains moderate. The macro fundamentals and market pricing have become 'misaligned', further increasing the uncertainty of the policy path. The market generally expects Powell to not signal a clear shift in this meeting but instead to continue with a 'wait-and-see and data-driven' strategy.
