The K-line of Ethereum is forming a deep V, while the whales' buy orders have quietly filled the ink.
News front: Capital is flowing secretly, regulatory uncertainty remains.
Institutions aggressively buying ETFs: Ethereum spot ETF has seen a net inflow of $321 million for 12 consecutive days, with giants like BlackRock locking in their cost at $3300-3500, showing clear intent to buy the dip; meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $1.23 billion, highlighting the 'seesaw' effect of funds.
Whales buying at low positions: On-chain data shows that 'shark-level' large holders holding 1,000-100,000 ETH have crazily bought 1.49 million ETH in the past month, with retail selling pressure being absorbed by institutions.
Regulatory black swan: If the SEC rejects the staking ETF, it could temporarily crash to $2300; however, if approved, it will open up a trillion-dollar RWA market.
Technical aspects: Triangle convergence awaiting breakout, a contest between bulls and bears at 2600.
Key level offense and defense:
Support: $2380-2400, three bottoms tested without breaking, bullish defense line → if lost, fear of a deep drop to $2200.
Resistance: $2700, June fake breakout lured bulls → Stabilizing is necessary to push towards $2900-3000.
Indicator signals:
Bollinger Bands: The four-hour line is closing to extreme volatility compression, indicating a potential turning point.
MACD: Daily golden cross failed, but a four-hour underwater golden cross, short-term rebound momentum is building.
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