'Undercurrents in news, technical bull-bear strangulation, 106,000 becomes the BTC life-and-death arena!'

Technical Analysis: Bollinger Bands widening, MACD 'last gasp of strength'

  1. Bollinger Bands:

    • Bandwidth widening, price breaking through the middle band, approaching the upper band, clear volatility return signal!

    • Key support: middle band 106,800, if lost, will test 105,500.

  2. MACD shows 'hidden worries':

    • Although the golden cross pattern is present DIF:235.06 > DEA:-32.50, the histogram line shortens from its peak, upward momentum fades, and death cross risk rises sharply.

  3. Battle Zone:

    • Resistance: 107,662 Keltner upper band → 108,181 Fibonacci 0.236 → 110,718 previous high;

    • Support: 105,500 bull-bear watershed → 104,000 demand zone bottom line → 100,372 previous low.



News: The Fed and geopolitical issues as a 'double-edged sword'

  1. Fed interest rate decision: 99% probability of maintaining interest rates, but if 'hawkish' signals are released, it may trigger market risk aversion; conversely, optimistic statements will boost BTC rally.

  2. Middle East situation escalates: The Iran-Israel conflict remains unresolved, and safe-haven funds may flow into the crypto market, but short-term panic sentiment suppresses risk assets.

  3. Potential positive developments:

    • Ethereum ETF capital inflow accelerates, Solana ETF advancement rumors;

    • GameStop plans to allocate part of $1.7 billion in convertible bonds to BTC, enhancing institutional entry signals.

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