US-Iran tensions escalate, Polymarket users bet on US military action against Iran by the end of June

Due to the increasing tensions between Iran and Israel, the contract odds on Polymarket regarding 'Will the US take military action against Iran by the end of June?' rose to 67% on Monday, significantly up from 35% at the end of March.

Although the Trump administration has not issued any official military orders, some users pointed out that US military aircraft and warships have been deployed in the Middle East, and Trump has stated that 'Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons.'

After Israel launched airstrikes and drone attacks against Iran, Bitcoin fell from a 24-hour high of $108,500 to $103,556 on Thursday, a decline of 4%.

Meanwhile, the social platform X announced a partnership with the crypto prediction market Polymarket to launch a new tool for real-time analysis of market news, combining XAI's Grok chatbot with relevant posts on X to interpret the reasons behind market fluctuations.

Although the probability of 'yes' has dropped from a peak of 67% to 50%, the prediction market still reflects the public's deep concern about a possible US-Iran conflict.

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