This round of subjective trading shorting has some gambling nature involved...
The reason for adding positions, besides the left-side short position being too small, is mainly due to the liquidity aspect of the futures market. I have been waiting for this liquidity grab targeting 108.5k.
Since the spot market did not participate in the surge above 107k, the only reason for the futures market to rally would be for short liquidation. When I saw the shorts completely liquidated, I started building short positions...
However, the price dropping quickly out of the building zone is indeed luck, as no one knows when Israel will start attacking Tehran...
From my perspective, even if there is no escalation on both sides, there should still be a pullback here. The reason I haven't opened a position in the past three days is mainly due to the spot premium not showing a strong rebound.
Now that a pullback has already occurred and the price has returned to the midpoint of the range, I will continue to take profits according to the trading strategy mentioned in the previous live broadcast. However, I left half of the short position and set a breakeven stop loss at 108k+;
The reason for doing this is considering that the current market structure is more likely to form a converging triangle rather than a standard parallel range oscillation;
If there is further decline, since there are still some short positions left, at least I won't be forced to bottom-fish and go long too early...
In short, my trading strategy is very simple: if the price is above 106.6k, look for opportunities to short; if below this, look for opportunities to go long. As long as the price returns to this level, I will take profits...
If the price directly crosses this level, then approach it cautiously and do not rush to open a position...