Following the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) last week, investors and traders are still closely monitoring key economic indicators from the world's largest economy. This week, three economic indicators from the U.S. are expected to impact the value of Bitcoin and the crypto market sentiment.

In addition to economic factors, President Trump's trade policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to significantly affect the U.S. economy, contributing to market sentiment volatility.

Important economic indicators to watch this week

Below are three economic indicators from the U.S. expected to have a strong impact on the value of Bitcoin and the crypto market this week.

#1. U.S. retail sales

This week, data on retail sales released by the U.S. Census Bureau will kick off a series of important economic indicators for the nation. This is an index reflecting consumer spending, playing a key role in driving about 70% of the U.S. economy, and thus has a widespread impact on market sentiment.

According to data from MarketWatch, retail sales in April 2025 recorded a modest increase of 0.1% compared to the previous month. However, economists' polls forecast that retail sales will decrease by 0.6% in May 2025. This reflects market expectations of a decline in consumer spending, possibly due to the impact of tariff issues under President Trump, causing the economy to face instability.

If this data officially confirms a decrease of 0.6% or worse, it could heighten expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates to support the struggling economy. In that case, Bitcoin could benefit as a safe-haven asset against monetary easing policies or inflation concerns, pushing its value higher.

Conversely, if the data results are unexpectedly positive, such as unchanged or a rise above 0.1%, the U.S. dollar could strengthen, and expectations for an interest rate cut could diminish. This could create downward pressure on the crypto market.

#2. Initial unemployment claims

Since the Juneteenth holiday falls on Thursday, the report on U.S. unemployment claims will be released on Wednesday, June 18. This is an important economic indicator, reflecting the number of American citizens filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week.

The U.S. labor market is becoming an increasingly important macroeconomic factor for Bitcoin. Therefore, this data will be an important indicator to watch this week.

In the latest report, the number of unemployment claims for the week ending June 7 rose to 248,000, higher than the 242,000 predicted by experts. Economists now predict that the number of unemployment claims in the past week could rise even higher, reaching 250,000.

This increase reflects a worrying reality: the U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness. This could create a positive signal for Bitcoin, as expectations regarding the Fed adjusting monetary policy in response to this downturn grow.

An analyst on X shared the observation:

"The labor market is weakening → Unemployment claims rise to 248,000 (the highest since October) → The four-week average reaches 240,000 (the highest since August 2023) → The number of people receiving benefits rises to 1.96 million (the highest since November 2021). This weakness could force the Fed to pivot, paving the way for the growth of cryptocurrency."

In summary, if the unemployment claims data continues to rise, this could boost expectations that the Fed will change its policy, thereby supporting the growth of the cryptocurrency market.

#3. FOMC interest rate decision

This week, one of the most important events among U.S. economic indicators will be the FOMC interest rate decision, expected to be announced on Wednesday. This decision will come right after the U.S. CPI report from last week, and it will play a decisive role in shaping the Fed's monetary policy.

Inflation rose again in May, the first time since February. CPI data, while a lagging indicator, is very important to the Fed as it reflects the degree of achievement of the 2% inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.

Recent CPI data will certainly influence the FOMC's interest rate decision. Based on the CME FedWatchTool, the market is currently predicting with a 96.7% probability that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate at 4.25-4.5%. However, there is still a small chance of 3.3% that the Fed will decide to cut the interest rate down to 4-4.25%, equivalent to a 0.25 percentage point reduction.

The FOMC's decision this week will depend on current economic indicators, as well as the need to boost monetary stimulus to achieve the Fed's dual mandate: price stability (2% inflation) and maximum employment. This means that if the economy continues to show signs of weakness, the likelihood of an interest rate cut will increase.

In addition to the aforementioned economic factors, a notable political factor that may influence the Fed's decision is pressure from President Donald Trump. Although the Fed has committed to maintaining a cautious policy, Trump continues to exert pressure demanding that Chairman Jerome Powell implement deeper interest rate cuts.

"The Fed should cut a full point. It will pay much less interest on maturing debt. It's important," Trump wrote on Truth Social after the CPI data was released.

With the market currently expecting an interest rate cut starting in September, an unexpected decision on Wednesday could shock the market. If the Fed decides to cut interest rates immediately, this could drive Bitcoin prices up sharply, as a reduction in rates lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

Conversely, if the Fed decides to keep interest rates unchanged, this may not strongly impact the market as it has already been anticipated and thus reflected in asset values.

With the ongoing economic and political factors, this week promises to be a critical moment for Bitcoin and the crypto market. Economic indicators from the U.S., along with political factors and the Fed's interest rate decision, will be the key factors influencing the value of Bitcoin in the near future.