Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $108,000, reaching a local peak of $108,952 on Monday after testing the $104,000 support level over the weekend.
This rally occurs amid the conflict in the Middle East and as investors have scaled back expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, signaling greater confidence in Bitcoin's price potential.
Trader sentiment remains stable despite deteriorating socio-economic prospects, as reflected in the derivative product metrics.
The premium on Bitcoin futures contracts hit 5% on Monday, a baseline for a neutral market. Monthly contracts typically trade at a premium of 5% to 10% to maintain longer settlement times.
Although lower than the 8% recorded at the end of May, the market showed little reaction when BTC retested the $101,000 mark on June 5, indicating resilience.
Bitcoin ETFs listed in the United States saw a net inflow of $301.7 million on Friday, and Strategy's announcement of an additional $1.05 billion purchase on Monday helped ease traders' concerns about the potential economic downturn and the negative impacts of the conflict in Iran, one of the world's largest oil producers.
Oil prices initially surged on Sunday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures reaching $78 before falling back. By Monday, WTI futures had dropped to about $71.50 a barrel, coinciding with a 1.5% rise in the Nasdaq futures market. According to Yahoo Finance, participants expect tensions in the Middle East to ease.
Bitcoin faces barriers from energy costs and the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates.
The path for Bitcoin to regain the $110,000 level may be more challenging than expected, as some analysts point to risks from rising energy prices.
On Monday, Philippe Gijsels, the strategic director at BNP Paribas Fortis, stated that "the market's reaction has been modest, so there is still room for a decline if things escalate."
In addition to concerns about the energy market, increasing volatility also diminishes the likelihood of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
According to CME FEDWatch, rising inflation pressures have prompted traders to price in a 63% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates at 4% or higher in November, up from 56% a month earlier.
The confidence of Bitcoin traders is also evident in the options market, where the 25% delta skew (put-call) fell to a neutral level of 1% on Monday after hitting 6% on Sunday.
Indicators above 5% are often viewed as negative, reflecting higher demand for put options from market makers and arbitrage trades.
Bitcoin is trading just under 4% below its ATH at $111,965 on May 22, despite increasing volatility and recession concerns, while derivative metrics remain neutral.
This environment supports growth momentum, as bulls have been unable to trigger panic amid escalating global tensions.
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research notes that U.S. President Donald Trump "does not seem ready to exit his trade war," adding that the debate over trade war is far from over.
Ultimately, regardless of developments in the Middle East, the path to $112,000 for Bitcoin remains closely tied to easing uncertainties related to the tariff situation.
