Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Coming to an End?
This article analyzes the Bitcoin bull market cycle from a new perspective.
From the relative price of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 index (BTC/SPX), the Bitcoin bull market cycle is also a strong period for BTC relative to SPX.
From the end of 2022 to now, BTC/SPX has clearly developed a significant five-wave structure, with even the fifth wave reaching the final stage of its fifth sub-wave.
From the weekly RSI, there have already been two major instances of a top divergence, and within the fifth wave's fifth sub-wave, there is also a smaller RSI top divergence.
Additionally, the BTC/SPX weekly chart has shown a MACD top divergence.
From multiple technical indicators, BTC/SPX has displayed clear top signals. This suggests that even if the strong phase of BTC relative to SPX has not yet ended, it is already nearing its conclusion. We are about to enter a weak phase for BTC relative to SPX.
Therefore, unless one is particularly optimistic about the U.S. stock market, it is best not to be overly optimistic about BTC's future performance.
