Bitcoin experienced a violent rebound after a dip in the early morning today, with a long lower shadow on the daily chart and significantly increased trading volume, seemingly indicating strong bullish momentum. However, when the price rebounded to the resistance level of $106,700, it faced resistance and fell back, and the bearish pressure has not changed—the net outflow of major funds reached $470 million in a single day, and large sell orders continue to suppress the price. The technical indicators show a 'Shooting Star' pattern, the KDJ indicator has formed a dead cross at a high position, and with the MVRV of short-term holders still in the high-risk zone at 1.13, profit-taking pressure may trigger a secondary sell-off at any time.
The key support level of $102,000 is facing triple tests: first, on-chain data shows that the cost of short-term holders is concentrated around $97,000; if it falls below $102,000, it may trigger programmed stop-losses; second, although the situation in the Middle East has temporarily eased due to Trump's remarks, the countdown has begun for nearly $9 billion of selling pressure from Mt. Gox, with the transfer of 12,000 BTC having alerted the market; third, the Bitcoin sentiment index has fallen to the bearish zone at 46.1%, and the OBV indicator has failed to effectively break above -80K, with the divergence between volume and price suggesting that the rebound momentum is exhausted.
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Bitcoin: $106,700-$107,200 range, looking down to $105,000
Ethereum: $2,620-$2,640 range, looking down to $2,570
