Brothers, the crypto world is witnessing history again! Last night, when the bomb went off in Iran, the entire cryptocurrency market was dragged off a cliff. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted 1.5% in 15 minutes, crashing from 106,000 USD to break through the 85,000 USD support level. Ethereum (ETH), SOL and other mainstream coins suffered tremendously, with maximum declines reaching 12%-17%! Within 24 hours, 200,000 people were liquidated, 1.154 billion USD was lost, with the most severe single liquidation exceeding 200 million USD. This is not just market volatility; it’s a 'mass liquidation massacre' that even I, in Chang'an, find painful.
However, strangely, after the crash, the market is still shouting 'greed' (fear and greed index 60), and even analysts are confused: 'Is Bitcoin not even paying attention to the Middle East conflict?' In fact, it's not that the crypto world is truly fearless, but rather that after so many hits, it has developed a 'drug resistance.' When Iran bombed Israel in April, Bitcoin dropped 10% in one day, but this time with the same script, it only dropped 2.3%. To put it simply, this is the whales testing the bottom line of retail investors.
Looking at Trump, he is making a killing! On one hand, he is stirring up trouble in the Middle East, and on the other, he is harvesting wildly in the cryptocurrency world. His personal crypto assets have surged to 3.3 billion USD, accounting for 60% of his total wealth. His company, World Liberty Financial, pocketed 57.35 million USD in a single transaction, and the TRUMP coin launched by his son is even more exaggerated, skyrocketing 15,000% in 12 hours; even a money printer can't make money that fast.
Even more absurd is his policy combination punch, on one hand, he talks about building an 'American Bitcoin reserve,' threatens to replace the SEC chairman (who manages cryptocurrency trading), and even wants to confiscate the Bitcoin seized by the government; on the other hand, he uses the situation in the Middle East to create panic, letting the market sentiment follow his baton. Lighting the fire of war with one hand and using policy to pump up the market with the other, Trump is indeed the biggest whale in the crypto world. The Democrats criticize him for 'using the presidency to harvest retail investors,' but we in the crypto world still have to watch his face.
Now, the situation in the Middle East is like the sword of Damocles hanging over the cryptocurrency world, burying three bombs:
- Battle situation bomb: Iran has declared it will 'retaliate indefinitely'; if they really bomb US military bases, Bitcoin will likely crash to 90,000; but if the US and Iran suddenly negotiate, a rebound to 108,000 is also possible.
- Trump bomb: This guy has copied the 'US dollar hegemony' strategy into the crypto world, forcing countries to hoard Bitcoin, and imposing taxes if they don't comply. It can pump up the market in the short term, but in the long run, he could change his tune at any time. In February this year, a single statement about increasing tariffs caused Bitcoin to crash by 10% instantly; that lesson is still fresh.
- Federal Reserve bomb: On June 19, the Federal Reserve will announce + Powell's speech, which is a key point. If the Federal Reserve is dovish (indicating a rate cut) and the Middle East ceases fire, Bitcoin might soar; but if it is hawkish + fighting, the 100,000 support line will definitely not hold, with 1.7 billion in liquidations waiting ahead.
Looking at the altcoins, the landscape has changed completely. Bitcoin, relying on its 'safe haven persona,' firmly holds the top position in the crypto world, accounting for 59% of the total market value. Institutional ETFs are buying heavily, and Grayscale has even set a target price of 150,000 USD. But Ethereum has completely collapsed, with its market share dropping to 7.9%, a five-year low. Gas fees are ridiculously high, staking yields have dwindled to 3.8%, even lower than Yu'ebao, and users are being rapidly snatched away by newcomers like SOL, SUI, and XRP. I'm really furious, ETH drops harder than anyone, but when it rises, it’s like a snail, this 'big brother of altcoins' might not hold its position.
Let me remind everyone, don't really believe that Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset. In 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine war, Bitcoin dropped 70%, and that lesson is still fresh. This Middle East turmoil is a mirror reflecting the truth; Bitcoin is at most a 'shoddy air defense shelter,' it falls less during wars and rebounds quickly; ETH and those air coins are just cannon fodder, falling without rising, purely a retail investor's meat grinder.
The next few days are even more critical for the cryptocurrency world:
- June 16 - 21: Tokens like ARB, ZK will unlock, expected to dump 260 million USD, which is a considerable pressure on the market.
- June 19: Federal Reserve decision + Powell's speech; a single statement from him can send the crypto world soaring or crashing.
- Iran's revenge countdown: If they launch missiles again this week, Bitcoin will definitely break 100,000; if it's just rhetoric, the bottom-buying army will definitely rush in immediately.
In short, the cryptocurrency world is currently being controlled by three lines: the powder keg of the Middle East, Trump's money bag, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate table. Do you want to wait to be blown to pieces, or strategically position yourself with Chang'an in advance? Think it over carefully!
