News: Unlock storm hits ecological outbreak, SUI stands at a crossroads!

Countdown to the unlocking of 178 million USD SUI on July 1, the 3 USD defense line becomes a critical line for bulls and bears!

Massive unlocking pressure:

On July 1, SUI will unlock 58.35 million tokens (worth about 178.5 million USD), accounting for 1.71% of the circulating supply. Historical experience shows that large unlocks often trigger selling pressure, especially when the current price is under pressure at the 3 USD mark. If it breaks down, it could accelerate the drop to 2.85 USD.

Impressive on-chain data but lagging price:

The number of Sui on-chain accounts surged by 68% in two months, and the stablecoin market cap surpassed 1.13 billion USD, firmly holding the top spot among L1 chains.

Ecosystem protocol revenues surged, but the SUI price has retraced more than 20% from the May peak, creating a divergence of “strong fundamentals vs weak technicals.”

Macro risks compounded:

The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy remains undecided, Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts are raising risk aversion, and the proportion of short positions among leveraged traders is increasing, making SUI a short-term hedging tool.

Technical Analysis: Bollinger Bands shrunk to the limit, MACD golden cross but lacking strength.

Key signals on the 4-hour K-line:

Bollinger Bands:

The channel has narrowed to the extreme, with prices oscillating closely around the middle band at 3.0970, and the trend reversal window is approaching! Historical pattern: A narrow band is often followed by a single-day breakout of 3%+.

MACD indicator:

Although there is a golden cross, it is below the zero line + red bars are weak, indicating a weak rebound signal that needs volume confirmation.

Bull-bear dividing line:

Support: 3.00 USD → If broken, look down to 2.85.

Resistance: 3.2 USD → A breakthrough could open up space for a rise to 4.2.

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