Emergency Notice! Key Position at 106800 for Bull-Bear Showdown
Current BTC/USDT Quote 106740 (+1.14%), technical and news factors resonate to trigger a market change warning, three core signals have sounded the alarm:
Technical Anomalies
Death Cross Resonance: MACD indicator DIF(174.9) continues to be below DEA(245.4), histogram -140.9 confirms strong bearish sentiment; more dangerously, the moving average system - MA5(785.6) and MA10(853.5) gap has narrowed to 67 points, a death cross is imminent.
Exhausted Volume: Trading volume has plummeted to 992,900 contracts, less than 1/3 of yesterday's peak, with capital flow entering a "dry season" mode.
Key Price Level: A huge amount of sell orders is piled up at 107000 (visible in the order book), while there is weak support at 105600; once breached, it will trigger a chain reaction.
News Disturbances
Bullish:
Grayscale continues to accumulate while Bitcoin halving countdown is 11 days (latest statistics), triggering institutional FOMO sentiment.
Bearish:
The Federal Reserve delays interest rate cut expectations, suppressing risk appetite.
Regulatory agencies suddenly inspect derivatives platforms (suddenly today), some leveraged accounts fear panic withdrawals.
Personal Analysis: MACD death cross + shrinking volume forms a classic downward structure, policy black swan further strengthens bearish advantage. Although the halving narrative supports long-term logic, short-term technical breakdown risk is as high as 80%!
Market Projection: First kill the longs, then lure the shorts.
Today's Trend Prediction: Probability of downward fluctuation > 70%
Core Basis:
The order book shows dense sell orders above 107000, a breakthrough requires a buy order of 5 billion USD (current volume is less than 1/5).
Perpetual contract funding rate 0.0056% shows bullish overheating, easily triggering liquidation.
Support strength at 105600 is insufficient (volume bars show no signs of sustained amplification).
Key Watershed:
If 105800 is breached: it will quickly probe 104400 (liquidation dense area).
If 106000 is strongly held: it may lure a long rebound to 107000 (probability < 30%).
Tonight's Focus: The Battle for 105600! The last wave of washing before the halving may start, my real trading strategy has been updated in the crypto community in real-time. Seize the pullback opportunity, precisely position for the halving market!
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