I thought the weekend would go sideways, but unexpectedly, the place least likely to explode exploded. zkj in the alpha sector exploded by more than 80% in a single day, because zkj's previous trend was more like a stablecoin!
In the past, everyone thought that only old coins, or coins that were completely controlled by market makers, would suddenly plummet and crash. Who would have thought that now even Binance’s most popular Alpha sector is in trouble!
Shouldn’t projects on Alpha work hard to perform and strive to be listed on Binance spot market? Why are they so eager to reap the benefits before listing?
In fact, the reason is very simple. Projects like Koge and Zkj have figured it out: they organize various activities every day to encourage everyone to increase trading volume, isn’t it just to compete for the spot quota? But after listing on the spot, isn’t the ultimate goal also to sell the coins in hand to retail investors at a high price to cash out?
The problem is that the proportion of Alpha projects that can actually be listed on the spot market is too low, only 12.2%. Moreover, it does not mean that you will be listed if you have the largest trading volume. Just like Binance’s voting to delist currencies, FTT always gets the most votes and is about to be kicked out, but in the end it never gets listed. This opportunity to be listed on the spot market is too unsatisfactory!
Therefore, instead of waiting foolishly for the elusive opportunity to go public, the two projects, Koge and Zkj, should take advantage of the popularity and high liquidity of the platforms to directly sell all their coins to the market and cash out. They must have planned this long ago. Starting from last week, many people suddenly said that the transaction fees and losses of trading between these two projects are low. This is obviously a payment-based approach.
Now the situation is even more obvious. The number of people who deposit money to provide liquidity to these two projects has not increased, and has even begun to decrease. In the last two rounds, Alpha points have risen to more than 240 points to participate, and a single account can only earn about $50 on average. What does this mean? It means that the peak of Alpha airdrops has passed!
This week is destined to be a turning point. The Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision at 2:00 on Thursday. The only factors driving prices are the U.S. stock market and the progress of the war in the Middle East. The turning point is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 2 a.m. on Thursday. I think since the expectations for rate cuts are all in September, don’t expect anything in these two months. You can expect the good news from a certain copycat to drive the wealth-creating effect of a certain sector, but it is limited to one wave. The rest of the time is garbage time. Don’t mess with your funds. There will be plenty of opportunities in the second half of the year.
Three signals for the second half of the year:
Macro liquidity has improved, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 to release liquidity. The weak dollar cycle is conducive to the inflow of funds into the crypto market.
Currently, there are multiple altcoin ETF applications awaiting approval from the U.S. SEC. These applications come from large asset management companies such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and VanEck. Bloomberg predicts that the probability of approval is very high. The approval of altcoin ETFs will attract institutional funds to flow into approved altcoins, boosting the sentiment of the entire cryptocurrency market and driving up the prices of small coins.
When Bitcoin's share of the entire cryptocurrency market exceeds 60%, it is often the turn of altcoins to rise. Now that Bitcoin's share has exceeded 64%, those really strong and good altcoins may be at the starting line of preparing to rise.
In the future, not all altcoins will die out, but most useless projects will be increasingly ignored and marginalized. Only a few coins with really strong technology, pleasing supervision, and the ability to cooperate well with other projects will survive and develop well. This is like the transition from a crazy period of "any crappy coin can rise" to a period of careful selection of "only good coins can survive."
The reason for the current situation of copycats is very simple. The early funds are all in BTC. When BTC is pulled to a very high level, copycats will move. The time window left for copycats is very short. When Bitcoin adjusts, if copycats are not particularly hot, it is difficult not to follow the decline.
With the unlimited supply of meme coins, the long tail has become longer, the hotspots of altcoins have become more dispersed, funds have been diverted, and various decentralized trading platforms (dex) have emerged. This has little impact on BTC, but in the altcoin sector, a considerable amount of funds have been diverted.
Finally, the macro events to watch this week are:
The U.S. retail sales data for May was released at 20:30 on Tuesday, with the previous value being 0.1% and the expectation being -0.7%.
Thursday 2:00 Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Brothers, come to the chat room and gather:
