Is the Bitcoin bull market coming to an end?
This article analyzes the Bitcoin bull market cycle from a new perspective.
From the relative price of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 index (BTC/SPX), the Bitcoin bull market cycle is also a strong cycle for BTC relative to SPX.
From the end of 2022 to now, BTC/SPX has clearly formed a significant five-wave structure, and even the fifth wave has reached the final stage of its fifth sub-wave.
From the weekly RSI, there have been two significant top divergences, and even a small-scale RSI top divergence has appeared within the fifth sub-wave of the fifth wave.
In addition, the BTC/SPX weekly chart has also shown a MACD top divergence.
From multiple technical indicators, BTC/SPX has shown clear top signals. This means that even if the strong cycle of BTC relative to SPX has not yet ended, it has already reached its conclusion. We are about to enter a weak phase for BTC relative to SPX.
Therefore, unless one is particularly optimistic about the U.S. stock market, it is best not to be overly optimistic about BTC's future performance.
