From Satoshi Nakamoto's 'mathematics of beauty' to U.S. President Trump's national reserves; from cyber frenzy to publicly listed companies hoarding Bitcoin; from Bitcoin's price breaking $110,000 to tens of thousands of meme coins (air coins without fundamental value), virtual assets represented by Bitcoin have embarked on a new narrative rhythm in 2025. In mid-May 2025, influenced by the easing of Trump's tariff policies, the improvement of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and the U.S., and the simultaneous downturn of the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, the world's largest market capitalization cryptocurrency Bitcoin first broke through the $110,000 mark, breaking the record of $109,000 set in January 2025 after Trump's election, reaching a historical new high. As Bitcoin's trading price first surpassed $110,000, market attention and discussion regarding virtual assets have once again heated up. Why did Bitcoin's price rise in this round and set a new historical high? Integrating the views of multiple market participants and institutions, there are multiple favorable factors supporting this round of increase, including the easing of trade tensions, a more friendly attitude from the Trump administration towards cryptocurrencies, progress in stablecoin legislation in the U.S. and Hong Kong, continued inflows of institutional funds, and improvements in the macroeconomic environment. In early April, Trump signed the so-called 'reciprocal tariff' policy at the White House, leading to a sharp decline in virtual assets, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the dollar market. On May 12, China and the U.S. issued a joint statement from the Geneva trade talks, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. Both sides promised to eliminate 91% of the tariffs imposed on each other's imported goods, while suspending 24% of the tariffs for 90 days, ultimately resulting in a cumulative reduction of 115% in tariffs. This agreement, which exceeded market expectations, alleviated concerns about the escalation of the trade war and a global economic recession. On the policy front, stablecoin legislation has become the most significant component of this year's Bitcoin narrative. On May 30, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government announced the (Stablecoin Regulation). According to the regulation, any institution or individual issuing fiat currency stablecoins in Hong Kong, or claiming to peg the value of Hong Kong dollars (regardless of where the issuance occurs), must apply for a license from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In terms of U.S. legislation, on May 19, the U.S. Senate officially passed the (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation Act for U.S. Stablecoins) with a vote of 66 to 32. In June, the bill will enter the full Senate voting phase. In terms of funding, Bitcoin and Bitcoin spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) continue to attract capital inflows, highlighting the capital's enthusiasm for Bitcoin. The rise in Bitcoin prices is also attributed to global worries about the surge in U.S. government deficits under Trump's leadership, combined with a global wave of large-scale sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries, which in turn pushed Bitcoin, known as a 'newly emerging safe-haven asset,' to soar. Regarding Bitcoin's trend in the second half of this year, Standard Chartered Bank expects Bitcoin to surpass $120,000 within the year, and it also predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $500,000 before Trump officially leaves office in 2029. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that in April, he set Bitcoin's target for the second quarter at $120,000. Driven by a strategic reallocation of U.S. assets and continued buying by large holders, Bitcoin's upward momentum is expected to continue into the summer of this year, possibly approaching the $200,000 target by the end of the year. HashKey Group's chief analyst Ding Zhaofei told (Finance) that the high for Bitcoin prices this year is expected to reach $150,000 to $180,000, and the narrative of the entire cryptocurrency market is also warming up. Although the spot prices are in consolidation and macro uncertainties remain, the implied volatility of cryptocurrency assets remains relatively high. However, institutions also remind that it is essential to be cautious of the high-risk nature of investments in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Investors should pay attention to multiple factors affecting the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, including global economic uncertainty, regulatory policy changes, whale investor movements, and the security of cryptocurrency assets (such as hacking). Prices have repeatedly set historical highs.
Multiple virtual asset investors told (Finance) that after Trump took office for a second time, the already fluctuating cryptocurrency market has become even more unpredictable. The trajectory of Bitcoin following Trump's victory in November 2024 has confirmed this uncertainty. Before surging to $110,000 in mid-May, Bitcoin experienced violent fluctuations due to Trump's announcement of tariff policies in early April, exhibiting a clear V-shaped reversal curve. On April 2, Trump signed the so-called 'reciprocal tariff' policy at the White House. The day after the tariff policy was announced, Bitcoin's price rose to $88,500, an increase of over 7.75%, in contrast to the U.S. stock market. However, Bitcoin's independent trend could not be sustained, falling to a low of $74,400 on April 7, during which the U.S. stock market also suffered significant setbacks. On April 3, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest single-day decline in nearly five years; on April 4, the three indices continued to drop more than 5%, with the Nasdaq Composite Index officially entering a technical bear market. Within just two trading days from April 3 to April 4, the total market value of U.S. stocks evaporated by approximately $6.6 trillion. On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of new tariffs on over 70 countries and regions other than China. As soon as the news broke, the three major U.S. stock indices surged. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surpassed the $82,000 mark within just an hour. Subsequently, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated upward. By May 22, Bitcoin's price rose above $110,000, peaking at $111,800. By then, Bitcoin had risen over 50% from the low in April, setting a historical high. After that, its price began to decline. On May 28, the world's most influential cryptocurrency conference—the 'Bitcoin 2025 Conference'—was held in Las Vegas, USA. However, the conference did not drive Bitcoin's price to continue rising, and by the end of May, Bitcoin's price had retreated to around $105,000. According to data from the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, as of June 6, Bitcoin's price was $102,500. 'In recent years, people have developed the expectation that prices will inevitably drop after conferences, so many people sell early or short Bitcoin at this time,' said the virtual asset KOL (Key Opinion Leader) 0xLige on the X platform. 'Bitcoin is also easily shorted, which is another important reason for its significant price fluctuations in recent years; thus, current investments still mainly focus on buying Bitcoin at low prices.' Another cryptocurrency KOL mentioned. On June 6, the public conflict between Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk emerged, as both are supporters of virtual assets, and under increasing uncertainty, virtual assets experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin dropping 3% to fall below $102,000, while Ethereum fell 3.6% to around $2,500. The decline in Bitcoin's price caused investors to incur substantial losses. According to monitoring by Lookonchain, on June 6, the 40x Bitcoin long position of major holder James Wynn was partially liquidated, resulting in a loss of about 155.38 Bitcoins, equivalent to $16.14 million. According to Coinglass data, as of 10:00 AM Beijing time on June 6, a total of 227,000 virtual asset investors globally were liquidated within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $981 million, and the largest single liquidation value was $10 million. (Bitcoin price trend over the past year, as of June 10, Source: Coinbase)
On June 10, Bitcoin recovered from its losses and once again surged past the $110,000 mark. According to Coinbase data, Bitcoin rose to a high of $110,623 on June 10, Beijing time, with a 24-hour increase of over 4%, nearing the historical high set in May by less than $1,200. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's growth has retreated to 3.9%, reported at $110,001.25. Numerous publicly listed companies are hoarding Bitcoin.
Since early April, Bitcoin's price has surged over 50%, briefly breaking the new high of $110,000. Data from Glassnode shows that in mid to late May, Bitcoin's non-liquid supply reached a historical peak. Industry insiders analyze that this indicates the current Bitcoin rally is not driven by retail frenzy, but by multiple structural forces working together, including companies hoarding Bitcoin, institutional fund inflows, and improvements in the macroeconomic environment. Among these, the trend of companies hoarding Bitcoin has provided significant support for this round of Bitcoin price increases. As of June 5, according to data from the Bitcoin Treasuries website, the number of publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin surged from 89 in early April to 124, collectively holding over 816,000 Bitcoins, with a market value of about $85 billion. Among them, Strategy (MSTR), founded by Michael Saylor and known as a 'major Bitcoin holder,' is the largest publicly listed company holding Bitcoin globally, owning nearly 3% of the total Bitcoin supply. According to documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, from May 26 to June 1, Strategy purchased 705 Bitcoins, with a total purchase value of $75.1 million, at an average price of about $106,495 per Bitcoin, marking the company’s eighth consecutive week of Bitcoin purchases. As of June 1, Strategy held a total of 580,955 Bitcoins, with a total purchase price of $40.68 billion, at an average cost of about $70,023 per Bitcoin, while the market value of these Bitcoins has reached nearly $60 billion. Furthermore, Strategy's 'hoarding' plan is also intensifying. On May 29, it submitted documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission again, planning to further increase its Bitcoin holdings by issuing up to $2.1 billion in 10% perpetual preferred shares. In May, when Bitcoin prices hit new highs, there were not just Strategy among the companies hoarding Bitcoin. On May 6, news from Lookonchain monitored that the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, purchased 5,613 Bitcoins, worth about $530 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 620,252, valued at approximately $5.851 billion. Since April 21, BlackRock has accumulated a total of 47,064 Bitcoins, with a total value of about $4.44 billion. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on social media, 'Currently, BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings are second only to Satoshi Nakamoto, and it is expected to become the world's largest Bitcoin holder by late summer 2026.' He also mentioned, 'As of June 3, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF has entered the top 25 ETFs in the U.S. with an asset size of $72.4 billion. It is expected to surpass Satoshi Nakamoto by the end of 2026 and become the largest Bitcoin holder globally.' Nano Labs, a U.S. publicly listed company, also recently stated to (Finance) that the company will continue to hold Bitcoin and does not rule out the possibility of further purchases. As of February 21, 2025, the company held 400 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $40 million, with an average cost of $99,500 per Bitcoin. On May 19, Coinbase Global, which ranks ninth globally in Bitcoin holdings, was included in the S&P 500 index, which also means that global U.S. stock index fund investors have effectively increased their exposure to virtual assets. 'From the behavior of most companies currently, increasing Bitcoin holdings is mainly driven by financial or investment strategies, rather than directly serving the development of the company's core business,' said HashKey Exchange co-CEO Ru Haiyang to (Finance). HashKey Exchange has Bitcoin purchase collaborations with Nano Labs, Boya Interactive, Blueport Interactive, New Fire Technology, and Zhongyou Game, but investing in Bitcoin does not enhance operational efficiency or create new revenue sources like cloud computing, artificial intelligence, or underlying blockchain technology. Furthermore, while buying low and selling high is a beautiful wish for every investor, it is not easy to achieve in practice. Currently, most publicly listed companies still focus on hoarding Bitcoin, especially in this year's market environment. It is noteworthy that Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, becoming an important driving force for Bitcoin's price. According to SoSoValue data, the total asset management scale of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $125.85 billion, accounting for 6.05% of Bitcoin's total market value, fully reflecting its key position in the cryptocurrency market. Futu Securities Managing Director Xie Zhijian stated that virtual asset spot ETFs have increased the market recognition of virtual assets and promoted regulatory improvements and institutionalization. According to (Futu 2025 Hong Kong Individual Investor Report), virtual currency concept stocks ranked among the top five sectors in trading frequency in 2024. From the holding situation, Generation Z (people born from 1996 to 2010) investors prefer virtual currency spots, while Generation X (people born from 1965 to 1980) prefer virtual currency ETFs. Individual investors are generally cautious about investing in virtual assets like Bitcoin. UBS's Global Financial Markets Head in China, Fang Dongming, stated to (Finance) that Bitcoin and gold allocation is a diversification of dollar assets, and due to risk considerations, most clients keep their allocations of virtual assets like Bitcoin within 5%. In the context of the ongoing tug-of-war between the dollar and gold.
Amid increasing uncertainties in the external environment, the complex game between virtual assets, gold, and the dollar has begun. Virtual assets, represented by Bitcoin, possess short-term safe-haven properties and characteristics of risk assets in the medium to long term, and these characteristics are always susceptible to catalysis by external crises. Ru Haiyang told (Finance) that the recent switch in Bitcoin's attributes between safe-haven and risk assets fundamentally reflects the market's dynamic understanding of its positioning and changes in short-term capital flows. 'In fact, the underlying logic of Bitcoin's price fluctuations has not changed; its price depends on the liquidity adequacy ratio of currency in the market: the more money there is, the more expensive the price. External crises are indeed one of the major catalysts for its risk asset characteristics, but the core contradiction still lies in currency liquidity, especially the strength of the dollar and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy,' Ru Haiyang stated. Regarding the dollar's trajectory, many industry insiders believe that the erratic tariff measures of the Trump administration have caused significant turmoil in the financial markets, and investors' confidence in dollar assets has been irreversibly shaken. The once-solid 'American exceptionalism' is gradually collapsing, and the 'dollar bear market' may persist for many years. Kamakshya Trivedi, global head of currency research at Goldman Sachs, stated: 'American exceptionalism is gradually being eroded.' UBS Group's co-head of Asia Wealth Management, Lu Caiyun, recently stated that UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets in favor of gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets. The UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office (CIO) released a research report stating that in the medium term, they are bearish on the dollar and suggest reducing or hedging dollar exposure on rallies. Although tariff risks have decreased, the controversial policies of the Trump administration and its policy shifts, which differ from traditional communication methods, will lead to more frequent changes in market risk appetite than in the past. Any form of dollar strength is expected to be short-lived due to supply-demand structural imbalances, and as the dollar's interest rate advantage begins to diminish, the dollar may soften for the remainder of this year. Gold helps diversify portfolios, especially in the current highly uncertain environment, and it is expected that gold demand will remain strong in the medium term. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' trading department, believes that the surge in U.S. Treasury yields has put pressure on global risk assets, and this crisis may ultimately evolve into a depreciation of the dollar and a comprehensive rise of safe-haven assets—gold and cryptocurrencies. Regarding the predicament of U.S. Treasuries, Privorotsky believes there are three potential solutions: large-scale cuts to government fiscal spending, such as halting tax cuts; financial repression, meaning controlling the yield curve through monetary policy; or public intervention by the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury in the dollar, which may trigger a currency war and ultimately lead to the complete collapse of the dollar's international currency logic. However, from the execution level of the Trump administration, the difficulty of the above options is immense, and none support a strong dollar, which also explains why capital is pouring into gold and cryptocurrencies. As traditional safe-haven assets, gold and Bitcoin have shown a seesaw effect this year. Regarding the reasons for this phenomenon, Ru Haiyang analyzed that when monetary liquidity is loose, capital tends to flow into Bitcoin, pushing its price up, while gold may weaken due to decreased safe-haven demand. Conversely, during tight liquidity or heightened market risk aversion, funds flow back into traditional safe-haven assets like gold, causing Bitcoin to come under pressure and decline. 'From the perspective of monetary liquidity, both gold and Bitcoin are expected to rise in the second half of the year because global easing expectations are warming, and a weaker dollar will support both. However, the driving logic of the two is different; gold is more sensitive to international dynamics and geopolitical issues, while Bitcoin is more sensitive to U.S. policies and dollar liquidity,' Ru Haiyang mentioned. JPMorgan, on the other hand, believes that driven by corporate demand and U.S. government support, Bitcoin may outperform gold in the second half of this year. 'From mid-February to mid-April, the rise in gold came at the expense of Bitcoin; from mid-April to early May, Bitcoin's rise came at the expense of gold.' JPMorgan believes, 'Overall, we expect the zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin to continue for the remainder of this year, but we are more inclined to believe that factors driven by the cryptocurrency industry itself will bring more upward momentum to Bitcoin in the second half of the year.' Future opportunities and risks.
Under the tariff game, the market continues to fluctuate, and the global financial order is undergoing reconstruction. Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflicts and financial sanctions facing some countries, various nations and institutions are beginning to reassess the role of virtual assets. So, after the price broke through $110,000, what opportunities and risks will Bitcoin face in the future? Tang Bo, director of the Financial Research Institute at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, told (Finance) that the future cryptocurrency market remains a mix of opportunities and risks. The short-term benefit is that after the acceleration of regulatory easing policies, the industry gains more clarity, which can spur more innovative growth. Long-term uncertainties include the sustainability of policies; the current cryptocurrency market policies are highly tied to Trump's personal will, and if a new administration comes in, there is a possibility of policy shifts that could bring risks to cryptocurrencies. Additionally, Bitcoin itself is a high-risk asset that lacks a value foundation; its price depends on market supply and demand and can exhibit significant price volatility. Currently, investors are highly enthusiastic about the cryptocurrency market, but many projects carry legal risks and flaws, requiring careful scrutiny. Regarding future opportunities for Bitcoin, CITIC Construction Investment Securities believes that since Bitcoin's birth in 2009, it can be roughly divided into four bull and bear cycles, and it is currently in the fourth bull market phase, marking an era of collective speculation on cryptocurrencies. Well-known companies are beginning to accept Bitcoin payments, some small countries are adopting Bitcoin as their legal currency, and the cryptocurrency ecosystem is gradually improving. 'Some emerging market countries are attempting to incorporate Bitcoin into their foreign exchange reserve mix to diversify risk, while some tech companies and private capital view it as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. Although Bitcoin's volatility and regulatory uncertainty still limit its becoming a mainstream reserve asset, its symbolic significance cannot be ignored. It marks the shift in the global financial power structure from centralization to a multi-polar or even decentralized evolution,' Ru Haiyang stated. In his view, Bitcoin witnesses the impact and reconstruction of existing financial structures from the rise of emerging digital assets, signifying the start of a more open, transparent, and censorship-resistant financial era. It is worth noting that as stablecoin legislation coincides with Bitcoin's price hitting new highs, risks in virtual assets still persist. Recently, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that he would allow clients to purchase Bitcoin. However, he also emphasized issues such as Bitcoin being misused for money laundering and the lack of clarity in ownership, saying, 'I don't think you should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke, and I also defend your right to buy Bitcoin.' Victory Securities stated that although they hold a long-term optimistic view on Bitcoin's trajectory based on long-termism, the short-term strength and momentum of Bitcoin prices have exceeded the institution's most optimistic estimates. The reason lies in the excessive optimism in risk markets, including U.S. stocks, and the investment and speculation frenzy triggered by Bitcoin's significant expansion in the U.S. Regarding whether Bitcoin can reach new highs again, Victory Securities has a pessimistic outlook. They previously predicted in a March report that Bitcoin would reverse in the summer of this year, but the market reaction was beyond expectations, and in May it hit a new high again. Therefore, the institution believes that considering various uncertainties and delayed liquidity expectations, Bitcoin is likely to oscillate with U.S. stocks in the next two months, and achieving new highs to reach a new price level is a low-probability event. Regarding the risks faced by individual investors in virtual assets, Xie Zhijian reminds that it is essential to note that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are always a high-risk investment category. Whether it's cryptocurrencies or cryptocurrency ETFs, qualified investors need to complete suitability matching tests. In the long term, the outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, but short-term volatility is inevitable, and it is crucial to pay attention to multiple factors such as global economic uncertainty, regulatory policy changes, whale investor movements, and the security of cryptocurrency assets (e.g., hacking) affecting the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
