After a morning surge to 2640 USDT, it encountered a 'guillotine' type sell-off, dropping to a low of 2560 USDT, and as of 16:50 is reported at 2625.74 USDT, with a daily fluctuation of 3.06%. The market has revealed three major danger signals, and bears have laid down a trap above 2630; the outcome of this battle between bulls and bears will directly affect next week's market direction.
Technical aspect: Three mountains pressing down, the rebound has become a 'flash in the pan'.
Opening the 1-hour candlestick chart, ETH is performing a classic script of 'false breakout to entice buyers'—a strong bullish candlestick in the morning pierced the BOLL midline (2600 USDT), seemingly about to challenge the previous high of 2638 USDT, but at the moment it touched 2640, it was immediately pushed back. The most fatal aspect is that this upper shadow is less than 1/3 of the previous bearish candlestick, forming a textbook 'inverted hammer' top pattern, with trading volume shrinking by 23% compared to the previous day, a typical 'low-volume pullback', indicating the strong intention of the main players to offload at higher prices.
The MACD indicator has also released a dangerous signal: the DIF line (white line) has crossed below the DEA line (yellow line) above the 0 axis, and the red bars have been shrinking for two consecutive days, forming an initial divergence structure. This indicates that speculative funds driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are withdrawing, and the market will return from 'emotion-driven' to 'fundamental pricing.' More alarmingly, the funding rate has maintained a negative value for 6 consecutive hours (currently -0.025%), with arbitrage funds massively shorting, significantly lowering the cost for shorts, which could trigger a 'flash crash' at any time.
News aspect: Good news turns into bad news; a regulatory storm is approaching.
On the surface, ETH indeed welcomed two major benefits today: first, Grayscale's ETH Trust increased its holdings by $15 million in a single day, bringing the total to over 3.2 million coins, a three-month high; second, the Cancun upgrade testnet was officially launched, with the announcement that 'sharding + state freezing' technology will be deployed, theoretically increasing network throughput by 300%. However, these are all 'well-known benefits' that were digested by funds two weeks ago, and at this moment, they have become an excuse for bulls to offload.
The real killer move is hidden in the dark: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler suddenly stated during his testimony in Congress yesterday that 'we are evaluating whether DeFi protocols fall under investment contracts,' and hinted that ETH, as 'the core asset of decentralized finance,' may face securities regulation. This statement directly strikes at ETH's 'value lifeline'—if recognized as a security, it will not only face strict information disclosure requirements but may also be included in the SEC's regulatory sandbox, forcing institutional funds to withdraw massively. Coincidentally, Binance announced today that USDT withdrawal fees have increased by 30%, exacerbating liquidity stratification issues, and small to medium investors are facing the dilemma of 'difficult withdrawals and expensive takeovers.'
Personal opinion: 2630 is the switch for the meat grinder; the probability of decline has reached 75%.
From the market details, the current buying pressure is extremely distorted: there are over 20,000 large sell orders (each order is 100 ETH) above 2630, while below 2600, there are only sporadic small buy orders. This is a typical 'vacuum zone trap.' Coupled with CoinGecko data, over the past 72 hours, ETH whale addresses (holding ≥100,000 coins) have net sold 32,000 coins, worth over $85 million. These large players who hold market influence have already retreated in advance.
More critically, the macro environment is deteriorating: the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting show that the proportion of 'hawkish' officials has risen to 65%, and the probability of two more rate hikes this year has surged from 35% to 58%. The US dollar index has broken through the 105 threshold, activating the 'withdrawal machine' attribute of cryptocurrencies as risk assets. The escalating situation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices to $85 per barrel, and rebounding inflation expectations will further squeeze the valuation of risk assets, with ETH being the most affected due to its high volatility.
Simulation: Two scripts, two destinies.
Script One: Bears Gaining Strength (Probability 60%)
If the price cannot recover to 2630 USDT by 20:00 tonight, it will trigger a programmed trading stop-loss chain: breaking the 2620 integer level → losing the 2600 psychological defense → the 2580 intraday low is in jeopardy → ultimately testing the strong support at 2550 (previous wave starting point). If 2550 is lost, panic selling will rush towards the 2500 integer level, with a potential daily decline of 5%-8%.
Script Two: Bulls Struggling (Probability 35%)
If there is a sudden 'signal of interest rate cuts' from the Federal Reserve tonight or a significant positive news for the ETH ecosystem (like Vitalik publicly supporting the Cancun upgrade), it may briefly pull back to the 2630-2650 range, but the trading volume must exceed 2 million contracts (currently less than 1.5 million contracts). This kind of 'low-volume rebound' is essentially an opportunity for retail investors to take over, and ultimately, it will still form a 'double top' structure in the 2680-2700 area, initiating a weekly adjustment.
The only certain opportunity: exit and observe
Regardless of the script, the current position is 'licking blood on the knife's edge.' For holders, reduce positions unconditionally above 2630, and consider adding positions below 2560 to bet on a rebound, but be sure to set a stop-loss at 2530; for those with no positions, patiently wait for a 'bullish engulfing' reversal signal in the 2500-2520 range before considering building positions in batches. Remember: surviving in a bear market is more important than making quick money; don't let the mindset of 'betting on a rebound' ruin your positions.
The market is never short of opportunities, but it lacks blood-stained chips. In this life-or-death struggle for ETH, are you ready to take sides? Click to follow for real-time market interpretations and risk warnings, guiding you through bull and bear cycles!
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