Route One: Cut losses and exit (surrender-style compromise)
Core Logic: Quietly promise to abandon uranium enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions, but never publicly admit defeat.
Data Evidence: Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile reaches 408.6 kg (sufficient to produce 10 nuclear bombs); if fully dismantled, it means self-sabotage.
Conflict Point: Youth unemployment rate over 30% + inflation rate 40%, if surrender is made public, it will trigger public upheaval, and the risk of regime collapse will soar.
Market Impact: If a secret agreement is reached, oil prices will flash crash to $80/barrel (currently reported at $94), gold's safe-haven demand will plunge.
Operational Strategy: Set up to short crude oil futures, hedge long positions in gold
Route Two: Private equity raid (underground covert war)
Core Logic: Restart the 'proxy war' model of the 1980s, retaliate with asymmetric means.
Real-time Dynamics:
The Revolutionary Guards have activated a 'shadow fleet' to deliver missiles to Hezbollah via the Caspian Sea;
Houthi forces have threatened Red Sea merchant ships; if attacks escalate, it will disrupt 12% of global oil transportation.
Data Support: Iran's 300 missiles retaliated against Israel, only 1 hit the target, revealing a technological gap.
Risk Leverage: US troops stationed in the Middle East enter 'Charlie Alert' (capable of combat within 72 hours), localized conflicts may escalate at any time.
Hedging Plan:
Go long on defense stocks (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon) ETF;
Increase BTC holdings (on-chain data shows whale addresses increased by 21,000 coins weekly).
Route Three: ALL IN gamble (exit nuclear agreement)
Nuclear-level choice: Exit (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), accelerate uranium enrichment to weapons-grade (90%)
Deadly Simulation:
In 7 days, the first nuclear bomb can be produced, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will initiate nuclear programs, and a Middle Eastern arms race will erupt.
The US and Israel will inevitably carry out a second strike; Iran has moved enrichment equipment to underground facilities, but air defense gaps have been infiltrated.
Chain Reaction:
Oil prices surge to $130/barrel, global inflation skyrockets;
Bitcoin may repeat the flash crash of March 2020 (a single-day drop of 37%) due to liquidity squeeze.
Extreme Operations:
Short-term: Buy crude oil call options (strike price $100+)
Long-term: Dollar-cost average into BTC (history shows an average increase of 258% in the 6 months after geopolitical crises)
Action Guide (Updated June 16):
Crude Oil Hedge: Those with spot positions ≥ $50,000 must open BRNT short positions to hedge against Iranian compromise risks.
BTC Dollar-Cost Average: Increase position when it falls below $60,000, the ultimate safe haven under nuclear crisis.
Defense Industry Ambush: Build positions in US stocks simultaneously, LMT (Lockheed Martin), arms dealers in the Middle East are the sure winners.
Core Conclusion: After Israel's airstrike decapitated Iranian Revolutionary Guards' top brass and destroyed the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran finds itself cornered. The 'three dead-end theory' by Gulf think tank director Abdelaziz al-Sager is coming true—surrender-style compromise, underground covert war, nuclear agreement thrown out—each path relates to oil prices, gold, defense stocks, and also affects the volatility of BTC and other safe-haven assets!
Final Warning: Iran's choice is your position choice—either follow the whales closely or become cannon fodder
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