Last week, the crypto market experienced a 'roller coaster' situation. Bitcoin (BTC) initially surged strongly, quickly hitting new highs, but the good times did not last long. In the early hours of the 12th, U.S. stocks suddenly plummeted, dragging the crypto market down with them. It was later revealed that the situation in the Middle East had abruptly changed, war had broken out, and the U.S. stocks first tanked, followed by the crypto market.
It can be said that the current crypto market is very hard to 'stand independently,' no longer possessing independent trends like before, but rather following the U.S. stock market. As soon as there is any movement there, the crypto market reacts immediately, appearing particularly passive.
In this 'weak market' environment, besides holding BTC spot or engaging in short-term contracts, many previous profitable trading styles are now almost ineffective, with win rates declining and difficulties doubling. It requires more patience and strategic gameplay—this is essentially a display of capital 'hunting and wrestling,' as the resources in the market are too limited.
BTC: The trend is stuck, looking at short-term fluctuations, but there is still hope for the long term.
Although there have been significant fluctuations, the price of BTC did not break through the important range last week, and the price has now been consolidating in the middle for three days. The appearance of two consecutive 'doji' candles on the weekly chart indicates that the market has entered a wait-and-see period, and the direction remains unclear. This sideways movement has lasted for four weeks, which is a typical 'no trend' state.
In the short term, the market is stuck in a smaller range of repeated fluctuations; a surge to 'tempt' buyers before a pullback is not ruled out, and it may also directly test the critical support of 100,000 dollars. If it holds, it indicates that the bulls are still present; if it breaks, the market may continue to move downward.
Currently, it is more probable that this week will test the support level of 100,000. If it does not fall below, it indicates strength; once the time comes, the market may suddenly turn upward. The key is to focus on two core variables this week: the movement of U.S. stocks and the progress of the Middle Eastern conflict.
Particularly important to note is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on June 19, which may become a 'key node' for a change in market direction; short-term operations must pay close attention.
ETH: Great potential, undervalued, but needs BTC to ignite.
ETH is currently still oscillating within a long-term large range, and many people are already singing its demise. However, in fact, ETH's recent performance has not been weak, showing a certain resilience. I maintain my previous viewpoint: until it breaks the range, I do not recommend blindly shorting. As long as there is any positive news or if BTC starts to rise, ETH is very likely to surge rapidly and eliminate shorts.
Especially a recent positive development for ETH has been severely underestimated: ETF-related data is performing better than BTC, primarily supported by new U.S. regulatory policies, which have increased expectations for staking profits and enhanced ETH's attractiveness.
Although the price has not reacted temporarily, once it starts, the FOMO (fear of missing out) effect will quickly intensify, attracting institutional funds to flock in, creating significant upward price potential.
The perspective of ETF issuers is also worth noting: they have a strong motivation to drive the ETH market because the staking profits they gain are essentially risk-free earnings. The larger the scale, the more astonishing the profits. Therefore, they actively market and create FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment, just waiting for the price to rise to 'collectively voice' their opinions.
Market sentiment is heavily bearish, while bullish participants hesitate, leading everyone to be cautious. In fact, from a larger cycle perspective (such as weekly levels), BTC is still in a bullish trend, and a bear market has not yet been confirmed.
The essence of the market is unpredictable, but trends and strategies can be managed. If you are optimistic about the future market, consider the following strategies to gradually build positions and reduce risk:
• At the 100,000 dollar mark: those without positions can gradually enter with small amounts;
• If it breaks below 100,000, watch for support at 97,600: you can continue to position with small amounts;
• If it dips down to around 93000: continue to accumulate in batches;
• For experienced traders: when key support breaks, use small leverage short positions to hedge and reduce losses from spot volatility.
Do not attempt to 'guess the bottom,' but instead accumulate in batches and hedge to minimize risks.
Of course, the premise for all operations is: you must genuinely have a positive outlook on the future market. If you are not optimistic, even if you buy in, you can easily get scared off by market fluctuations and stop-loss in vain.
Altcoins: many positives, but prices are not rising, caution is needed.
In the past few weeks, many altcoin projects have had good positive news; if it were in a bull market phase, they might have already surged. But currently, the overall market enthusiasm is insufficient, and the effect of news-driven movements is limited. The old problem persists: prices require capital to propel them; mere fundamentals are far from enough.
Insufficient capital means altcoins struggle to gain momentum. Therefore, I temporarily do not recommend significant participation in this area; observation is key.
Conclusion: Silence in the market is the signal before an explosion.
Recently, I've noticed that many people are not paying much attention to the market anymore; groups have also quieted down significantly, presenting an overall state of 'wait-and-see + numbness.' Often, it is during such times that the market begins to brew the next movement.
If you are willing to prepare, you need to start setting the rhythm now, control risks, and wait for the moment when the winds rise.
