$BTC 📢Polymarket Prediction Market Snapshot🤯
As of now, Polymarket users are pricing in a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, June 18, 2025 .
🔍 What this means
• Prediction markets vs. futures markets: Polymarket—a decentralized crypto-based prediction platform—shows an overwhelming consensus among its users that there will be no rate cut on June 18 .
• Mainstream signals align: Official sources like CME FedWatch and analysts are also expecting a rate pause at this meeting .
🧭 Why markets expect no change
1. Inflation remains above target: The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge continues to hover above 2%, keeping officials cautious.
2. Strong labour market: Employment data remains robust, reducing pressure for immediate rate cuts.
3. Fed’s own messaging: Public statements from Fed officials have emphasized patience and data reliance before any monetary easing.
📅 What to watch next
• The official June 18 FOMC announcement and accompanying dot-plot projections.
• Economic updates until then—monthly inflation and employment data in particular.
• How forward guidance shapes markets toward July or later as potential timeline for rate cuts.
💡 Bottom line
Polymarket’s estimate reflects widespread sentiment: a rate cut this Wednesday is considered extremely unlikely. The Fed appears intent on maintaining current rates and waiting for clearer signs from economic data before easing its stance.
#fomc #FOMCForecast #FOMOalert #FOMC_Decision
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