📈 Analysis of today's rebound reasons
1. Geopolitical risks are driving safe-haven buying
Recent tensions in the Middle East have brought market risk aversion, prompting BTC to become a safe haven for funds, remaining stable above $105K.
Combining traditional safe-haven assets like gold with Bitcoin shows a simultaneous rise, reflecting ongoing global uncertainty.
2. Continued inflow of institutional buying
Companies like MicroStrategy have announced increased BTC budgets, stabilizing institutional buying support for prices.
The U.S. is expected to establish a 'strategic reserve' of Bitcoin, indicating a positive signal regarding government-level demand for BTC.
3. Technical perspectives and macro background
In technical analysis, BTC successfully broke through the 50-day EMA and tested support, which conditions it for further upward movement.
US inflation data slightly decreased (CPI 2.4%), and the market expects a possible interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, which is bullish for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
🧭 Technical resistance and support levels
Analysis Type Position Interpretation
Resistance Around $106K–107K, $108K–108.3K If it holds above, it may trigger the next wave of upward movement.
Support Around $105K, $104.2K, $103K If it breaks, it may retrace to $103K or lower
If it falls below $104.2K, it may weaken in the short term; conversely, if it breaks above $106K→$108K, it will shift to bullish.
🔮 Market expectations and risk points
Shifting to bullish: Bulls argue that BTC has established weekly support and has shown a rebound trend since early June.
Short-term correction risk: Some analyses indicate a potential formation of a short-term double top structure. If it fails to break through, it may experience fluctuations or even corrections.
Future outlook: As inflation eases and corporations/countries continue to build BTC positions with ETF fund inflows, the overall bullish base remains stable.
✅ Summary and strategy recommendations
Short-term traders: Recommended to observe the $105K–$106K range. If it breaks through, consider a short-term long position; if it falls below $104.2K, defensive opportunities are weak, suggesting a reduction in position.
Medium to long-term holders: Fundamentals remain bullish. If there is no urgent need for funds, consider holding or making small additional purchases. Declining inflation, corporate entry, and government policies all support a bullish trend.
📌 Small reminder
Geopolitical events or policy changes may trigger rapid fluctuations at any time; do not over-leverage.
Closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and CPI data, as they have a crucial impact on BTC's trends this week.
Summary:
Today's rebound in Bitcoin is supported by safe-haven demand, institutional buying, improvements in technicals, and easing inflation, collectively providing a boost. The key ahead is whether it can break through the $106K–$108K resistance zone; otherwise, short-term pressure may still exist.
