IBM announced the world's first fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of performing 100 million quantum operations.
Its launch is scheduled for 2029.
Community opinions diverged regarding the impact on the crypto market.
Previously, the Bitcoin developer published BIP to warn about future quantum hacks of crypto wallets.
The American company IBM presented an updated roadmap for quantum computing, which for the first time mentions the creation of a fully fault-tolerant quantum computer — Quantum Starling.
According to the plan, the system will be ready by 2029, which could significantly shorten the time before a potential threat to Bitcoin's cryptography.
The Starling system is expected to use 200 error-corrected qubits to perform 100 million quantum operations — a level of computational power that was previously unattainable due to the high error rates in quantum computers.
«Recently, we reviewed our roadmap, extending it to 2033 and beyond. And so far, we have successfully completed all planned stages. Based on this experience, we are confident in further progress,» said IBM in an official statement.
What makes Starling special?
A key feature of the system is a high level of fault tolerance achieved through an advanced error correction system.
#IBM uses two-dimensional bicycle codes, which belong to the family of LDPC codes and allow reducing the need for physical qubits by up to 90% compared to previous approaches.
Additionally, the system will receive a real-time error decoder operating on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or specialized integrated circuits (ASIC) — this allows for the detection and correction of errors before they impact calculations.
«Most of the efforts in this area are dedicated to error correction. The new processor has a very promising architecture for implementing quantum error-correcting codes,» said Rosa Di Felice, Technical Director of the IBM Quantum Innovation Center at the University of Southern California.
According to her, the new processor can significantly simplify computations in areas where quantum computing can bring breakthroughs — for example, in chemistry, pharmaceuticals, and materials science.
A look at IBM's roadmap until 2029
2025 — launch of the IBM Nighthawk processor with 120 qubits and a deeper circuit. Improvement of the Qiskit software, particularly supporting dynamic circuits and HPC.
2026 — demonstrations of the first 'quantum advantage', announcement of the IBM Kookaburra module combining memory and logic.
2027 — scaling to 1,080 qubits through chip-to-chip connections (IBM Cockatoo).
2028-2029 — prototype of the fault-tolerant quantum computer Starling in 2028, full launch — in 2029.
Threat to Bitcoin: exaggeration or inevitability?
Despite the technical breakthrough, opinions regarding the consequences for the crypto industry are divided. Co-founder of Strategy, Michael Saylor (former MicroStrategy) recently stated that quantum computers pose a greater threat to the banking system than to Bitcoin:
«They will hack your banking system, Google account, Microsoft account, and all other assets much sooner than Bitcoin, because those are significantly weaker,» he noted.
However, Professor David Beider from the New Jersey Institute of Technology warned that with the emergence of fault-tolerant machines, the risk to the cryptographic algorithms on which blockchains rely is growing.
«Fault tolerance is a way to make quantum computers less fragile and less prone to errors. It is a key technology without which scaling to real applications will not be possible,» he says.
Although Beider acknowledges that the realization of Shor's algorithm, capable of breaking cryptography, remains in the future, he emphasized:
«Blockchains will not suddenly break in 2029 — but the situation should be monitored closely.»
Moreover, back in February 2025, Bitcoin developer Agustin Cruz presented a proposal for a Bitcoin update (BIP) called the “Quantum-Resistant Address Migration Protocol” (QRAMP). It proposes a hard fork of the network to protect assets from the risks of being hacked by quantum computers.
In addition, the initiative provides for the forced migration of bitcoins from old addresses vulnerable to quantum computing to new, secure wallets.
QRAMP includes initial code and instructions for changes in the consensus that would allow for the destruction of unspent transaction outputs (UTXO), that is, bitcoins that remain on outdated addresses.
Thus, after a certain deadline, the Bitcoin Core network would be able to reject any attempts to spend funds from such addresses, effectively removing them from circulation. In such a case, the user would have to transfer their coins to quantum-resistant wallets.
Cruz claims that his BIP provides an «unwavering opportunity» for asset holders to secure their funds.
«BIP addresses common critical remarks, such as the risk of permanent loss of funds, uncertainty about the timelines of quantum technologies, and the possibility of network splitting. It details measures to ensure backward compatibility, comprehensive security considerations, a large set of test cases, and an implementation plan that includes changes to the script interpreter, wallet software updates, and tools for network monitoring,» noted Cruz.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino believes that the emergence of quantum computing is positive for the development of the crypto market, as active holders of crypto assets will be able to protect them.
At BlackRock, they hold the position regarding the threat of quantum technologies to digital assets.
