A professional trader's trend capture rule
That time I missed the opportunity and broke my thigh
In March 2020, the market was extremely fearful:
BTC plummeted to $3,800, and the total liquidation volume of the entire network hit a record
The fear and greed index fell to 8 (historical low)
But I waited and watched because of panic
Result: It soared to $12,000 in 6 months, missing out on 3 times the return
Compared to January 2023:
When the fear index fell to 22 again
I decisively deployed BTC at 16,500
Result: It rose to 31,000 in 5 months, with a profit of 88%
Three secret signs of trend activation
1. Emotional freezing point signal
Community activity dropped by 70%
Exchange inventory broke the annual high
Stablecoin premium continued to be >1%
2. On-chain smart money trends
Whale address weekly holdings of >50,000 BTC
Miners stopped selling (coin holding curve flattened)
Long-term holders accounted for more than 65%
3. Technical resonance
Volatility compressed to historical lows
Weekly MACD bottom divergence
Break through 3-month downward trend line
2024 trend reversal warning
Current key indicators (June 12):
Exchange BTC inventory: 2.34 million (nearly 1-year high)
Miners' daily selling pressure: 800-1000 BTC
Fear and greed index: 40 (neutral)
Operational suggestions:
Retain 50% cash and wait for panic moments (index <span
Currently, positions can be opened in batches (add 10% for every 5% drop)
Chasing and breaking through the market is prohibited
My trend battle plan
1. Position opening time table
Fear index Operation strategy Position allocation
<span Heavy position bottom-fishing 50%
15-30 Batch position 30%
>70 Gradually stop profit -
2. Stop profit roadmap
First goal: cost price + 30% (reduce holdings by 50%)
Secondary goal: break through the previous high (reduce holdings by 30%)
Ultimate goal: Fear index > 90 (clear positions)
Pay attention to reverse indicators:
When the report of "Bitcoin is dead" appears, start paying attention
When relatives and friends ask "should I cut my losses?", prepare to buy at the bottom
Famous sayings on Wall Street:
The market is always born in despair, grows in hesitation, and perishes in carnival
Remember:
In the currency circle, choice is greater than effort!
Follow the right people, making money is a natural thing!
Like + follow Longmen = open the door to wealth!
