The biggest factor affecting cryptocurrency prices is undoubtedly war, with the current focus on the Iran conflict.

If the war escalates to impact the U.S. economy, Bitcoin could drop below 102,000;

If the war ends quickly and Iran disintegrates, Bitcoin will rapidly rebound above 110,000.

The most important force influencing the outcome is Trump's decision: whether to intervene directly, and if so, in what manner.

Gambling enthusiasts have bet that the probability of U.S. intervention in the war before July is 33%, with the most likely scenario being:

Hamas, in order to maintain its leadership position in the Islamic world against America and Israel, continues to attack Israel and further targets U.S. military facilities. Trump seizes an opportunity to deploy B2 bombers carrying GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs to completely destroy the Fordow underground nuclear facility, ensuring that the Middle East and Israel can enjoy peace for at least several decades, while simultaneously preserving Hamas's ruling position. This can maintain a balance of terror in the Middle East to facilitate arms sales.

If this scenario occurs, it is crucial to ensure that the attack concludes quickly to avoid the impact of soaring oil prices on U.S. inflation.

Trump has suffered significant setbacks in the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-China trade war, and urgently needs a boost. Iran is most likely to become the sacrificial lamb, as they are at their most vulnerable after continuous attacks from Israel, making them an easier target.

The impact on Bitcoin could lead to another wave of panic selling, which may harm the bulls.

Iran's weapons will run out in a week to a month at most, and China and Russia are unable to quickly replenish their weaponry and ammunition at this time.