Next week, the crypto market will welcome a series of important events. Tokens such as ZK, ZKJ, and ARB will face large unlocks, with ZK's unlock scale reaching as high as $39 million, which may have a certain impact on market liquidity. Additionally, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, and the market expects his company may disclose new Bitcoin accumulation data, generating attention.
From the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, if the price rises, there are a large number of large and extra-large short positions waiting to be liquidated in the $106100-109350 range; if the price falls, there is liquidation pressure on long positions in the $104200-100400 range.
From the Ethereum liquidation heatmap, when prices rise, there are a large number of short positions waiting to be liquidated in the $2560-2660 range; when prices fall, there is a risk of long position liquidation in the $2484-2392 range. This data suggests that investors need to be cautious of the risks brought by price fluctuations.
A few views on future trends
Regarding the so-called M top, from any angle, I do not believe this is a historical peak; it is still in a hesitant upward stage, far from the true top and frenzied climax.
It is quite normal for BTC to pull back for 3-5 weeks after rising for 7 consecutive weeks and hitting new highs; the final pullback low may be below $100,000, but it is unlikely to drop below $90,000. BTC has become similar to U.S. stocks, and the current liquidity in U.S. stocks leads to a supply-demand imbalance for BTC, so there is no need to fear heights with BTC; just look at how the Nasdaq has risen for decades.
ETH has recently shown steady performance, demonstrating potential for independent market movements. Altcoins may see phased opportunities after the adjustment of BTC, especially after BTC breaks new highs, but overall still constrained by the effects of quantitative easing policies, with a short opportunity window.
The liquidity crisis regarding ZKJ and KOGE has sparked heated discussions.
The liquidity feast brought by B安Alpha has ended due to the 'avalanche' effect, exposing multiple issues in the market:
1. Retail Investor Dilemma: Retail investors participating in Alpha are gradually withdrawing due to declining returns and high scoring costs, with the number having reached a turning point.
2. Game Between Whales and Speculators: Whales have positioned themselves in ZKJ and KOGE in advance, enjoying LP rewards, while liquidity withdrawal causes retail investors to take over at high prices, resulting in heavy losses.
3. B安 Policy Adjustment: B安 Wallet has canceled the LP points incentive policy to avoid further attracting new investors unfamiliar with DeFi to take over, which can be seen as 'mending the barn after the sheep are lost.'
Currently, the on-chain liquidity pool for ZKJ and KOGE is less than $20,000, and in three days, ZKJ will face a 1.55% token unlock, posing a high risk for bottom fishing.
Market speculation suggests that this crash may be due to manipulation by wild speculators or market makers; the project team may not be the direct instigator, but the underlying motives still require more information to verify. In a market with ample liquidity, speculators are like wolves seeking profit, and retail investors need to be particularly cautious.
Meme Coin Craze: Can $LABUBU challenge $PEPE?
In the meme coin market, $LABUBU is attracting attention, and whether it can challenge $PEPE and reach a market cap of $1 billion is the focal point. $LABUBU has the following characteristics:
1. Cultural Heritage: As a global pop culture IP that has been established for 10 years, $LABUBU is particularly popular in overseas markets, with a strong consensus foundation.
2. Chip Distribution: After multiple resets to zero, the chip washing has been sufficient, similar to the early trends of SHIB, with high participation from retail investors.
3. K-Line Performance: Demonstrating a strong upward trend in the past six months, attracting market attention.
4. Market Sentiment: The current meme coin market is filled with speculative atmosphere, investors are tired of the high-risk play of 'quick in and out', and are seeking strong consensus and sustainable targets.
Also, what I am most looking forward to in the next few days is that WLFI is about to issue coins. While altcoins and meme coins may have opportunities, it is important to select targets carefully and avoid blindly chasing highs. Investors should remain rational, be wary of liquidity traps, and grasp the market rhythm.
