Macroeconomic Analysis of the Market:

Three Possible Developments of the Israel-Iran War and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Escalation of Conflict (Probability 30%)

Trigger Conditions: Large-scale retaliation by Iran (e.g., blockade of the Strait of Hormuz/attack on U.S. bases).

Possible Pathways:

→ Israel launches a ground offensive, U.S. aircraft carriers intervene

→ Global oil prices soar to $150/barrel, triggering an economic crisis

→ Hundreds of casualties on both sides

→ BTC drops 5%-10%, altcoins drop over 20%, BTC falls then rebounds, gold continues to rise, significant damage to both sides' infrastructure, but the risk of the Iranian regime collapsing is higher (with economic collapse occurring first)

2. Limited Confrontation (Probability 60%)

Current Most Likely Pathway:

→ Iran conducts symbolic retaliation (e.g., attacks on Israeli embassies abroad/rocket attacks by proxies)

→ Israel conducts targeted airstrikes, avoiding full-scale war

→ International mediation (involvement of China, Russia, and Europe), returning to the 'shadow war' model

→ BTC rebounds to reach new highs, whales complete final distribution, pushing it to $120,000, altcoins recover

Impact: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices maintain a risk premium of $80–$100, leading to long-term increases in energy prices, Iran's economy slowly bleeding.

3. De-escalation of the Situation (Probability 10%)

Prerequisite Conditions: High domestic anti-war sentiment in Iran, policy shift in Israel post-elections.

Key Variables: U.S. pressure on Israel after the elections, or the resumption of negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal.

BTC surges with stronger momentum, rising to $130,000 within a week.