📜 Case Timeline:
🔹 Dec 2020 – The SEC accused Ripple of raising $1.3 billion by selling XRP as unregistered securities.
🔹 July 2023 – Judge Analisa Torres ruled:
• Sales of XRP on public exchanges to retail buyers did NOT constitute securities ✅
• But institutional fundraising sales DO violate securities laws ❌
🔹 Aug 2024 – Ripple is ordered to pay a $125M civil penalty 💸
🔹 Oct 2024 – The SEC appeals, seeking broader enforcement 📑
🔹 June 12, 2025 – Ripple and the SEC file a joint motion to show "exceptional circumstances" for modifying the final judgment issued in August 2024 and seeking release of the $125M escrow:
• $50M to the SEC
• $75M returned to Ripple — signaling potential closure 🕊️
🗓️June 16, 2025 – The court is expected to rule on the motion - deadline.
🔍 Four possible scenarios could unfold:
⚖️ SCENARIO 1: Full Approval of Joint Motion ✅
🔍 Legal: Case closes, escrow split, Ripple free to operate without further legal overhang.
💰 XRP Price Prediction: $2.80 – $3.20 🚀
📈 Major bullish breakout expected as institutional confidence returns and U.S. exchanges fully embrace XRP.
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⚖️ SCENARIO 2: Partial Approval 🤝
🔍 Legal: The court approves the escrow release, but does not fully lift the injunction — meaning Ripple may still face restrictions on future institutional XRP sales.
An injunction is a court-imposed limit that prevents Ripple from conducting certain XRP-related transactions, especially those deemed potentially unregistered securities offerings.
💰 XRP Price Prediction: $2.30 – $2.60 📈
🔄 Market sentiment improves, but upside is tempered as legal uncertainty lingers and institutional adoption may remain cautious.
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⚖️ SCENARIO 3: Denial of Motion 🚫
🔍 Legal: Injunction remains in place, escrow frozen, and litigation possibly extended.
💰 XRP Price Prediction: $1.80 – $2.00 📉
⚠️ Short-term bearish pressure as investors respond to continued legal ambiguity.
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⚖️ SCENARIO 4: Postponement of Ruling ⏳
🔍 Legal: Judge Torres delays the decision, either requesting further documentation, clarification from both parties, or due to internal court scheduling. The injunction remains in place until a final ruling is issued.
💰 XRP Price Prediction: $2.05 – $2.20 🔁
😐 Market reaction likely muted or slightly bearish due to uncertainty, but without panic. Investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach, holding positions until clarity is restored.
Given the joint nature of the motion and the clean procedural posture, a ruling in June 2025 is still the most likely outcome — unless unforeseen complexities arise.
📊 Conclusion: What this means for XRP Holders?
With XRP currently priced at $2.16, the market appears cautiously optimistic. A full or partial approval (Scenarios 1 or 2) is the most likely outcome, with a 60–70% probability given the joint motion and regulatory signals.
📌 Bottom Line: June 16 could be a defining moment for Ripple — and a turning point for XRP’s future in the U.S. regulatory landscape.
