Key Economic Events to Watch Next Week
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📈 1. U.S. May Retail Sales (Tues, 20:30 UTC+8)
• What it is: Measures consumer spending, which makes up ~70% of U.S. GDP.
• Why it matters: A strong number = healthy economy → could keep inflation high → may push Fed to keep rates steady or higher.
• Market impact:
• Above expectations: Bullish for USD, bearish for stocks/crypto (rate hike fears).
• Below expectations: Bearish for USD, bullish for risk assets like $BTC .
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📊 2. Initial Jobless Claims (Wed, 20:30 UTC+8)
• What it is: Weekly count of people filing for unemployment.
• Why it matters: A rise may signal weakening labor market—key for Fed’s inflation fight.
• Market impact:
• Higher claims: Could signal economic slowing → bullish for stocks/crypto (rate cuts more likely).
• Lower claims: May push rate cuts further away.
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🏦 3. Fed Rate Decision + FOMC Projections (Thurs, 02:00 UTC+8)
• What it is: Core monetary policy update. The Fed may keep rates unchanged at 4.5% or surprise markets.
• Dot plot projections will show where Fed members expect rates to go this year.
• Market impact:
• Hawkish tone: Bearish for crypto/stocks.
• Dovish tone or hints of rate cuts: Bullish for risk assets.
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🎙️ 4. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference (Thurs, 02:30 UTC+8)
• What it is: Powell elaborates on the decision and outlook.
• Why it matters: Markets often react more to Powell’s tone than the decision itself.
• Market impact:
• Calm, dovish tone: Boosts confidence → bullish for markets.
• Cautious or inflation-worried tone: Could spook markets → volatility expected.
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Bottom line:
Crypto and equities are in for a volatile week. The key driver will be how close the Fed feels to cutting rates and how strong U.S. consumers and labor markets look.
