Donald Trump's potential return to the US presidency has sparked cautious diplomacy between Israel and Iran, with both sides seemingly trying to establish an advantage on the ground before Trump's inauguration. Here's the current situation ¹:

- *Iran's Conciliatory Tone*: Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has suggested that Tehran could moderate its upcoming attacks if there's a ceasefire in Lebanon. Iran has also taken a more conciliatory tone on its nuclear program ahead of a meeting with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

- *Israel's Military Gains*: Israel has made significant tactical gains against Iran and its partners in Gaza and Lebanon since October 2023. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aims to "change" the Middle East, reflecting the intensifying Israeli hubris following these gains.

- *Trump's Influence*: Trump's victory has given both sides pause, with Iran signaling it would be prepared to de-escalate with the incoming administration. Trump's advisors have called for renewed maximum pressure against Tehran, but Trump has stated he's not seeking regime change, focusing instead on a nuclear-weapons-free Iran.

To prevent further escalation, European governments are urged to:

- *Diplomatic Efforts*: Partnering with Arab Gulf states to influence Trump towards de-escalation and communicate to Iran the importance of de-escalation.

- *Communication Channels*: Utilizing direct communication channels, such as between Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and Pezeshkian, to make the case for Iran to de-escalate.

The situation remains volatile, with the potential for miscalculation and further conflict. Diplomatic efforts are crucial to prevent a wider war between Israel and Iran.