After pulling up to 7.4, 10-11 has been oscillating for more than a month. From the time point, next week and this month will be a turning point for the market. At that time, if this month closes with a certain length of a solid bearish candle, then the market will continue to oscillate (which may adjust the oscillation range downward).
Is there a probability of breaking out and making a one-sided move? Of course, there is. Personally, I am purely a technical trader, dealing with contracts, focusing only on probability theory, and have predictions and coping strategies for any market. If you are concerned with news and data, please take a detour, as our paths do not align.
After rising to 10.03 last week, a pin bar was formed on the weekly chart. The closing this week is also crucial, determining whether to probe the bottom around 9.8-10.03 before pushing up again, or to directly challenge above 11 near 10.5, just wait for the main force's actions. As shown in the figure, 10.5 is the midpoint of the oscillation range.
Since the oscillation range has already emerged, contract operations are actually very simple.
First: At the 10.5 level, if it moves upward all the way, directly challenging the range of 11~ new highs (note, this new high can't be too high; if the main force pushes it too far beyond the previous high, it's very clear that you shouldn't short. This should be identified on your own.)
In the first situation mentioned above, you can directly short when it reaches the high-pressure level of the oscillation range, and set a stop loss. If it successfully declines and next week closes with a bearish candle that has an upper wick exceeding twice the length of the solid candle, regardless of whether it's a bearish or bullish candle, it will be considered a bearish signal. Therefore, the market may continue to return to around 10 by the end of the month, and if it drops quickly, it may happen as soon as next week.
If you set a stop loss and the market continues to rally, if next week's weekly candle closes with a certain length of a bullish candle, and the closing price is above all previous weekly highs, then there may be a possibility of a one-sided move, and at that time, consider going long, not short. This situation may lead to a one-sided move, possibly impacting 13-15.
Second: At the 10.5 level, if it directly probes down to around 9.8-10, it will reach the bottom of the oscillation range. It's obvious that long positions can be attempted. Set a stop loss. If the market successfully rallies and the weekly chart stabilizes with a bullish candle, it's clear that the market can continue to rise, with a chance to challenge 11~ new highs. Whether it's a specific one-time push or how to proceed has already been given method and strategy in the first situation.
The above are all personal strategies for contract operations. The specific entry levels have their own set of methods, and it's not just about entering at that position. Profit and loss are self-responsible.
Final advice, contract traders, always set a stop loss when opening a position, otherwise don't open a position. The above is purely for entertainment. Occasionally stated. Trolls, please do not disturb, and players focused on fundamental news should look away; I am purely a technical trader dealing with naked contracts.