$BTC

Factors influencing the fate of BTC this summer:

1. Trump's policies and elections

Trump has officially announced his candidacy and continues to make pro-cryptocurrency statements.

The market anticipates possible impacts on legislation, a ban on CBDCs, and support for Bitcoin as "digital gold."

The growing popularity of the TrumpBTC narrative supports a bullish scenario.

Impact: + for BTC price

2. Activity of major holders and ETFs

BlackRock, Fidelity, and other funds continue to make purchases through spot ETFs.

Volumes in US spot ETFs have remained positive for 9 consecutive weeks.

May-June: the distribution of institutional BTC creates a scarcity effect in the market.

Impact: + for BTC price

3. Halving (April 2024) and post-effect

Historically, a strong growth phase begins 3–6 months after a halving.

Mid-summer 2025 is exactly such a period.

Impact: ++, especially July-August

4. Macroeconomics: rates and inflation

The Fed hints at a potential rate cut in September, but until then, the summer may pass in anticipation.

Markets are frozen between fear and hope, but BTC often "leads" traditional assets.

Impact: neutral/moderate