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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

What happened? On Monday, Baird downgraded Tesla to Neutral with a $320 price target.

*TLDR: Tesla soars on robotaxi hype. Baird sidelines. Long-term potential remains; questions persist.

What’s the full story? Baird notes Tesla’s 24% post-earnings surge—smoking the S&P 500’s 13%—is fueled by hype around its June affordable vehicle and robotaxi launch. But the analysts aren’t buying Musk’s grand robotaxi promises, calling his ramp-up projections overly optimistic and already priced into shares.

Adding to the chaos: Musk’s chummy ties to Trump, which inject a fresh layer of political risk into Tesla’s brand. While Baird views Tesla as a core long-term play, they’re stepping back for now, wary of unanswered questions around the robotaxi rollout, Musk’s political theatrics, and the timeline for Optimus, Tesla’s robotics venture.

Despite these near-term uncertainties, Baird still sees Tesla as a heavyweight contender over the long haul, with massive potential in robotaxis and robotics. For now, though, they’re content to sit on the sidelines as Musk’s circus rolls on.

The market’s betting big on his vision, but Baird isn’t convinced the math adds up—yet

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