Whales' Influence on Cardano (ADA) is Growing: Selling Risk is Increasing on Price
As Cardano's native token ADA struggles to regain the $1 level, on-chain data reveals risks that investors need to watch closely. Especially the fact that whale wallets controlling more than a third of the total supply are at a loss increases potential selling pressure.
Dominant Effect of Whale Wallets
According to Santiment data, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA account for 35.6% of the total supply. Investors in this segment play a decisive role in ADA's price movements. Additionally, medium-sized wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA also create an additional impact with their 16.2% share. The fact that these two groups control more than half of the total supply indicates a centralizing power structure in the market.
Especially with ADA continuing to trade below the purchase prices of these large investors, it may trigger selling pressure. It is known that similar situations in the past have created downward effects on prices and led to distribution periods. Considering that whales have sold 270 million ADA recently, it is assessed that a similar risk may arise again.
1 Dollar Threshold and Technical Barriers
The failure of ADA to surpass the psychological and technical resistance of 1 dollar is challenging recovery hopes. This level represents not only investor confidence but also a potential upward trend. However, the price is still trading below this level, and the fact that whales continue to incur losses stands out as a factor that may trigger selling.
In current conditions, the $0.60 support is under threat due to weak buying interest. The combination of whale sales and insufficient demand may lead to the price falling below this level.
Technical Indicators Provide Weak Signals
As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the oversold territory, volume and market momentum continue to remain weak. The ADA/BTC pair has also returned to the support levels of February; this indicates a serious reluctance on the buyer's side. The decrease in leverage ratios in futures and the reduction in speculative interest also undermine short-term bullish hopes.
Conclusion: Cautious Waiting and Critical Monitoring Points
If whales move towards selling to reduce their losses, the probability of ADA experiencing a deeper correction increases. Especially dropping below $0.60 may trigger a 'capitulation' scenario. Therefore, investors should closely monitor whale behaviors; because movements from these wallets can predict significant changes in prices.
Still, oversold conditions may present some strategic buying opportunities. However, for such purchases to make sense, they need to be supported by increased volume and positive on-chain metrics.
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