The next wave of the market has traces to follow, so you can look forward to it!
Let's start with the macro market and liquidity.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is about 16-17%.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is between 58-80%.
August is a period without a rate meeting, and this August is very likely to be a great opportunity for a strong layout.
However, it’s actually not that important; just because rates are cut doesn’t mean it will soar immediately. At least, we need some time for the liquidity to flow in. Assuming that rate cuts start in September, if the market is given some time for liquidity injection, then the months following October will likely not be bad!
Currently, many people in the market believe that the three months of July, August, and September will see a significant rise, but I think it’s impossible because I don’t understand the logic they are talking about, claiming that the window period is an opportunity!
And what about those who say everyone knows rates will rise after a cut? Will the market really let everyone know when something happens?
Anyway, after watching all this, I feel the logic is just nonsense. Don’t forget that all financial markets have a logic called capital consensus; when everyone bets in one direction, the price can be pushed better.
Brothers who have followed me for a long time know that I cleared my positions at the end of May, but the fact proves that not participating in trading for the past half month was wise.
As for how much to start buying when it reaches the 8000s, you can take your time.
