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It is expected that fluctuations in oil prices will continue, with possibilities of reaching $80–120 per barrel if violence escalates or persists. This complicates the task of central banks, as interest rate cuts may be delayed to avoid new inflationary repercussions. Markets will maintain a preference for safe assets such as gold, the dollar, and bonds, while avoiding energy-sensitive stocks and travel. We may witness a global growth slowdown of about 2%, and continuously rising shipping and insurance costs as risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist. On the positive side, improvements in energy efficiency and the adoption of renewable energies may gradually alleviate the economy's vulnerability to oil fluctuations.
