The weekly chart shows a double top again. Is the bull market over? How to respond? Sister Bei plans to continue adding positions here. Let's review together.
Israel's airstrike on Sister Bei's wallet is no joke. This week, the account first rebounded from 2.13 million to 2.45 million, then plummeted to 2.06 million. Currently, the account still has an unrealized profit of 430,000, with a yield of only 26%. Sister Bei's mood has fluctuated along with the account value. The reason many people were caught off guard by this massive liquidation is that it happened too quickly! Israel declared war without warning; just hours after Trump reminded of the risks, the situation escalated! Unlike previous skirmishes that had ample time for a buffer, this one happened late at night, so everyone woke up to find their accounts severely diminished, and there was no time to run.
Currently, Bitcoin has formed a small double top on the 4-hour chart, while the weekly chart shows signs of a large double top. Ethereum has once again turned into a false breakout. The ABC wave pattern of mainstream altcoins remains, and the B wave rebound may have ended, beginning a larger C wave decline. Market sentiment seems to have turned somewhat pessimistic. There are unpredictable events today; Sister Bei is bullish on a breakout, having only reduced positions by 10% at high levels, so she can only accept the current situation and play her bets.
Due to having a heavier position, the primary task now is to reduce positions at highs during rebounds, and only then consider whether to increase positions on the second dip. Observing the rebounds over the past two days, the previous day touched the bottom, and funds only dared to enter to buy the dip on Bitcoin and Ethereum; other recently popular sectors like MEME and DEFI only began to see decent rebounds yesterday, but they remain weak. The ideal position for reducing during the rebound is around 106,800 for Bitcoin; Sister Bei plans to continue reducing positions by 20% to 30%. In the short term, this position is stagnant, and as she had added positions previously, she does not intend to buy more.
From a mid-term trend perspective, there is no need to be too pessimistic. As long as Bitcoin does not break 100,000, the structure will still fluctuate in the range of 112,000. We can just buy low and sell high within this range. The logic is quite clear; the sudden major negative impact of war, combined with the massive liquidation of contracts, couldn't push the price down to around 100,000, which indicates that the buying support is still quite strong. The major support around 100,000 is more resilient under scrutiny. Sister Bei plans to fully deploy her positions to buy the dip at 100,300. Only if it falls below 100,000 will she need to continue reducing positions to hedge against risks. A drop to 97,500 and 93,000 would be ideal re-entry points.
Similar to Bitcoin's logic, Ethereum has been strong recently. As long as it does not fall below 2,320, it is still in a range of fluctuation, and the structure remains unchanged. If it falls below that, stop-loss and exit are necessary. Sister Bei reduced some positions around 1,300 for PEPE; the large positions bought early are still intact. PEPE follows Ethereum's strength and is the leader in the meme sector; its performance during this rise and fall has been good. If there are no good positions to exit, she will continue holding. If there is an opportunity to enter at the previous low of 1,037, those with light positions can buy a little. When Bitcoin nears 100,000, she intends to continue adding to full positions.
SOL was relatively weak in the past two weeks, following the market. This week, it finally welcomed the expectation of ETF speculation, but then encountered a significant drop, which is somewhat unfortunate. Currently, Sister Bei has not sold any SOL. There may be good news in the fundamentals within a month, and she plans to continue adding positions when Bitcoin hits 100,000. Ray's performance is weak, similar to most altcoins. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart at 2.4 is a good point to reduce positions and wait for better entry opportunities. After all, the liquidity of altcoins is currently too poor; with Bitcoin's decline, coins that do not have independent trends and are not strong will drop even more sharply, so she is only reducing positions and not adding any, waiting for the market to strengthen before taking action.
Trump's son's WLFI may be listed on the 16th. What a bad turn of events, with such poor liquidity coming to suck blood; the stabilization after the second dip seems a bit precarious. On the 18th, the House of Representatives will vote on the stablecoin bill. If passed, it would be a significant positive, potentially reversing the market's downward trend. Next week, attention should also be paid to the Middle East situation and whether oil prices will continue to soar. If they keep rising, inflation expectations will increase, making it uncertain whether there will be a rate cut in September.
Opportunities are hidden in crises. When most people are bearish, one can be a bit optimistic. It is important to seize the moment. I wish everyone can catch the golden opportunity. That's it for the review; Bitcoin must hold up at 100,000. If it falls below, Sister Bei will have to go charm her ex-boyfriend to buy the dip fund again!
$SOL $PEPE $RAY #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #以色列伊朗冲突 #币安HODLer空投HOME #美国加征关税 #X平台封号
