Coinbase Institutional has identified three key trends that will shape the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2025: improved macroeconomic forecasts, increasing short-term demand from companies, and greater regulatory clarity.

He says these dynamics could lead to significant growth and structural changes in the entire digital asset system.

The improvement in macroeconomic forecasts with reduced recession risks is the first trend highlighted by Coinbase:

"We may witness an economic slowdown or mild recession this year if we cannot completely avoid recession, rather than a scenario of severe recession or stagflation," the report stated.

This indicates a more optimistic outlook for economic growth in the United States, especially as the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by the end of 2025, given the increase in liquidity measures such as the US money supply (M2) and expansion of global central bank balance sheets.

Coinbase believes that "conditions are unfavorable for asset prices to return to 2024 levels," meaning that the upward trend for Bitcoin is likely to continue. This encourages growth in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, especially amid controlled inflation and supportive fiscal policies.


Strong short-term demand from companies is the second factor, as companies increasingly view cryptocurrencies as a tool for asset allocation. According to Coinbase, around 228 public companies hold 820,000 Bitcoins globally, with some investing in Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple.

According to Galaxy Digital, about 20 companies use leveraged financing strategies, which are leading strategies from Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy). Updated accounting rules from the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) allow the recording of digital assets at their fair market value, replacing the previous loss recognition system and encouraging corporate participation.

There is a new trend of the rise of cryptocurrency trading vehicles (ETCVs), which focus exclusively on aggregating cryptocurrencies through the issuance of convertible stocks and bonds. However, this trend carries risks: forced selling pressures (due to bond debts) and discretionary selling (leading to erosion of market confidence).

Short-term risks are also low, as most debts are due between 2029 and 2030. With reasonable loan-to-value ratios, large companies can refinance without liquidating assets, supporting continued accumulation of cryptocurrencies in the second half of 2025.

The third trend is a clearer regulatory roadmap, with notable progress in stablecoin legislation and market structure. Unlike the previous 'regulation by enforcement' approach, the White House and Congress are moving forward with a comprehensive framework.

Additionally, stablecoin regulations, through the STABLE Act and the GENIUS Act, are expected to be a step forward by establishing reserve requirements, anti-money laundering compliance, and user protection.

These laws could be unified by August 2025. The laws governing the structure of the cryptocurrency market, such as the CLARITY Act, clarify the roles of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, based on FIT21.

Disclaimer

This news article aims to provide accurate and timely information. However, readers are advised to independently verify facts and consult an expert before making any decisions based on this content.

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