$BTC This position should not have much fluctuation in the next couple of days without major events to stimulate it. Whether it’s an upward movement or a decline, it needs to build momentum through oscillation. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market will be closed this weekend, and from the K chart, it is also approaching previous highs, showing no upward momentum for now. Next week will likely see a consolidating retracement, which currently has limited impact on Bitcoin.

What needs attention is the conflict with Iran. The sudden event a couple of days ago has had some impact on the cryptocurrency market, mainly from a funding perspective. Bitcoin is close to its previous high, and the upward space is quite limited, while the sudden outbreak of war will inevitably lead to a surge in gold prices. The investment attributes of gold are obviously stronger than Bitcoin in the short term. Fortunately, Iran has not taken action for now! As long as the situation calms down and expectations for gold investment weaken, funds will likely return when the opportunity arises!

From a technical perspective, the weekly K chart of $BTC is actually showing a significant divergence, and coupled with the failure to break through the previous high, a retracement is inevitable. Although the overall direction in the past month has been to look for a retracement, a significant drop would definitely require considerable oscillation time to accumulate long positions as fuel for short positions.

As shown in the chart: On December 17, 2024, after Bitcoin reached its peak, it broke through the previous high one and a half months later, followed by a month of oscillation until the significant drop on February 24, 2025. This was after more than two months of top oscillation. The recent peak on May 22 has not yet reached a month, and both peaks were quickly suppressed. The limited accumulation of long and short positions at the top raises the question of how much positioning can the main force complete without sufficient counterpart orders?

Therefore, what I am looking forward to is a scenario where, after oscillation, it once again challenges the previous high, or even breaks through it, followed by a few months of oscillation, and then another bottoming out or even a halving market to thoroughly cleanse the bulls. At that time, a large amount of capital will flow out of Bitcoin profits into mainstream altcoins, accompanied by a rebound in Bitcoin, igniting the main wave of a bull market!