Today's BTC market: Bulls are stubbornly holding at 110,000, but a 'death cross' has appeared; should we buy the dip or wait for a waterfall?

In a bull market, there are frequent sharp drops; in a bear market, there are frequent slow declines—today's BTC is like a dog with its spine pulled out, wanting to jump but only able to lie there gasping for breath.

1 Market hit: Bollinger Bands are tightening, MACD is performing the 'green hat play'.

Currently, BTC is priced at 105,039 USDT, and it has already broken below the lower Bollinger Band (108,469) on the 1-hour chart, and even worse:

All three lines of the Bollinger Bands are collectively moving downwards (upper band 110,410 → middle band 109,304 → lower band 108,469), tightening like a noose, indicating that volatility is contracting, but the direction is bearish.

MACD green bars continue to expand (DIF: -1776, DEA: -32), these two lines are lying flat below the zero line, a definite 'dead body pattern'. Long-time traders know: a MACD golden cross underwater is a real rebound; as for now? Dream on!

(Crow Brother interjects: This trend reminds me of last year's LUNA crash, where it suddenly plummeted after the Bollinger Bands contracted; history doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme…)

2 News supplement: ETF capital outflow + Fed 'hawkish shadow'.

Just checked today’s news online, bad news piling up:

Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days (yesterday saw 42.81 million dollars flee), and large institutions are running for the hills.

Fed officials have stated, 'there may be another rate hike this year'; the US dollar index is rising, and risk assets are collectively trembling.

Mt. Gox compensation countdown (140,000 BTC to be unlocked), although it hasn’t dumped yet, the psychological pressure is comparable to the 'Sword of Damocles'.

(For example: on June 10, when US CPI data exceeded expectations, BTC plummeted 5% that day; the news impact is more vicious than the technical aspect!)

3 Crow Brother's bold statement: The main force is playing 'fishing line'.

Don’t be fooled by the current sluggish decline; the main force might be brewing something big.

Trading volume is shrinking (only 460 million in transaction volume today), indicating that retail investors are playing dead, and the main force is lazy to dump without a counterpart.

Key support at 104,400 (previous low); if it breaks down with volume, it will trigger quantitative trading algorithms to follow the trend and crash down to 100,000 dollars!

But! If US stocks suddenly rebound tonight (Nasdaq futures are up 0.3% now), BTC might follow suit with a rebound to 107,000; beware of the trap!

(Crow Brother believes: I placed a pending order at 104,500; if it breaks, I will stop loss, and if it rebounds to 109,300, I will short without emotion and just follow the trend!)

The market is always right; the only thing wrong can be your position—now in this market, are you ready to be the ‘warrior catching flying knives’ or wait to pick up bloody chips after a ‘panic sell-off’? Share your trading plan in the comments, and the one with the most likes will get a special gift from Crow Brother (a manual on the psychology of institutional trading)!

I am Crow Brother, trust the institutions, take a stroll in heaven; trust the crow, and let wealth roll in the grave. If you want to know the latest news or consult and don’t know what an effective breakout point is, you can follow me, and Crow will guide you on the right path! If I fail to do so, feel free to wake me up in the comments!